Eclipse Mania 2024 - 06 April 2024

A solar eclipse will scan across the United States on Monday, 8 April 2024.  In a long stripe running from Texas to Maine, the ground track of totality will be a midda thrill for millions of viewers.  Some of them have questions and the Internet, in its infinite wisdom has answers, many of which are wrong.  The following are real questions with real answers.

Will it be safe to look directly at the sun?  No.  

It is never safe to look directly at the sun.  Use certified eclipse glasses, not just cheap drugstore/internet glasses and not welder's glass, but filter-glasses that have been certified by a real agency.

Will my cell phone service be reduced or curtailed?  No.

The solar eclipse involves the sun, the moon, and visible light.  There is nothing that relates the sun, the moon, or visible light to cell phones.  None.  Carry on.

Will there be a Zombie Apocalypse triggered by the eclipse?  No.

The last solar eclipse did not trigger one and this one will not, either.  No eclipse has ever triggered Zombies.  Ever.

 Will there be the Rapture?  No.

No eclipse has ever triggered the Rapture and this one will not.

Will there be earthquakes, rain of blood, locusts, or other natural disasters?  No.

There is always a chance of earthquakes, volcanos, and other natural disasters, but if they happen, it will have nothing to do with the solar eclipse.

Will animals behave strangely during the totality?  Yes.

Birds will go silent and other animals may show signs of sleepiness.  This is well-documented from previous solar eclipses.  Nature and life will return to normal as the local eclipse ends.

If you are in the path of totality - congratulations!  Enjoy the show.  Protect your eyes.  If you are outside the path of totality, maybe next time.  Maybe I will see you in 2044 or 2045!

AI Is Going Great, Part 1 - 3 April 2024

A couple years ago, Amazon.com announced automated stores in which customers pick up items, put them into a cart or bag, and then "just walk out".  A cloud of cameras and scanners would watch the selection process of each customer and automatically total up the bill.  AI would drive the whole systems.  Well, not so much.  It turns out the whole system was driven by 1000 people in India paid to watch the cameras and create the receipts for "automatic" checkout.

According to a report today, 

Amazon ditches "Just Walk Out" tech: The futuristic cornerstone of Amazon's grocery store experience was a lie. Amazon advertised this experience where a completely automated process tracked your moves in the store, watching what you grabbed and tallying your bill as you "just walked out," nullifying the need for any pesky cashiers. However, it turns out the process wasn't automated at all. Instead, over 1,000 people in India were watching the cameras and assembling bills for whatever you put in your basket. 

https://gizmodo.com/amazon-reportedly-ditches-just-walk-out-grocery-stores-1851381116

Ratcheting as a Management Technique - 26 March 2024

I have experienced ratcheting, a subtle management technique that is easy to apply and hard to detect.  I do not recommend it - in fact, I abhor it - but there are some defenses.

Ratcheting is a simple method of management in which a manager continually asks for more and more work in less and less work time, often sliding into uncompensated overtime.  The most obvous technique is to simply assign more work or more complex work while holding a deadline steady.  I will not be able to cover all techniques with examples, but some examples will help explain the practice of ratcheting.

"Hey, about that report on router efficiency - can you include some analysis of the file servers, too?"  

"I was thinking about that analysis of router efficiency.  Can you also apply some regression analysis and give us some idea of the problems caused by each primary traffic type?"

Alternatively, the manager can pull in the expected delivery date.

"The meeting to present the report on router usage got pulled up to Thursday, so be sure you are ready for that."

"I have a preparatory meeting with the VP, so I need your preliminary numbers by noon, tomorrow.  Keep working on the final numbers, but be sure there are no surprises in the interim."

The obvious defense is to agree and then ask what other work can be dropped or delayed to compensate.  The ratcheting response is to minimize the work or the disruption.

"It is just an Excel sheet, so you should be able to pull in that deadline."

"The changes are pretty simple and the text editor / word processor program should handle most of the work."

The offered techniques for work simplification usually do not affect the workload.  The "automated work" is often just a fraction of the total workload.  In my work, the bulk of my energy was usually spent in collecting and cleaning the input data while the analysis was pretty mechanical;  filling in the gaps required thought and not just typing.

Finally, the ratcheting causes some sort of breakdown.  The employee explodes or rejects the new work and the manager backs down.  A little.  This is when the ratcheting technique makes clear its value.  Now that the employee is used to the higher level of work, the manager pauses a little bit, and then resumes the ratcheting when the employee has calmed down.  The employee gets a day or two of relief and then the ratcheting starts all over again.

Complementing the ratcheting technique is the continuous offer of benefits or a threat of consequences.  The manager promises the extra effort will "help your career" in some non-specific way that never quite materializes, or lack of the extra effort will put the employee behind the curve of the rest of the team and their bonus or promotion prospects will suffer.  This latter has then benefit that the employee feels they are disappointing the rest of the team and so the extra work is required as a matter of group loyalty.  None of this is true and none of it ever happens, but the employee is now acclimated to the new work level.

If you feel stressed at work, take a moment to look for evidence of ratcheting.

Career Notes #5: How To Get Promoted, Not - 22 March 2024

It appears to be common wisdom in the technology business that the way to get promoted is:

As one of my managers used to say:

If you want to get a promotion, you don’t need to complete 1,000 tasks; you need to figure out how to eliminate the need for the 1,000 tasks. 

This particular example of the common wisdom comes from the SeattleDataGuy via his newsletter on Substack.   

This is balderdash.  Naive, well intended, perhaps even a closely held belief, but balderdash.  Let us take a look at this in more detail.

If you hold a task-driven job, it may be the right path to eliminate those 1000 tasks on your way to promotion, but a task-driven job is pretty low on the totem pole, so this might get you promoted among the minnows and guppies but it will not help your career much.  Note that I am not saying that it is a  bad idea to eliminate tasks, but it is far from sufficient for promotion and it is not necessary.

If you do hold a mundane, task-bound job, then automating tasks is a good idea, but it becomes part of a promotion case when you share the automating scripts with your colleagues.  You  may get a bonus or an award if you automate your work, but a promotion will be tied to your ability to improve the group, not just yourself.  We can generalize this.

To get promoted, think about the responsibilities that your boss has and help solve them.  Making the group more productive is clearly a responsibility of your boss while your own productivity is your own responsibility -- therefore, creating and sharing improvements is the proper path forward.  Creating improvements is necessary but not sufficient.  You must also make sure that your boss (and collegues) know the source of the improvements is you.  This does not have to be a billboard or major production on a stage, but you do need to be sure that your contributions and solutions are tied to the improvements.  Think of it as "reporting the news".  

Reporting The News is a key concept.  Many people are concerned that they will be seen as braggards or that they will be confused with the people that steal the work of others.  Nope.  I am not suggesting braggadocio, but rather a simple news reporting function.  Put it in your status report (you do not write a status report?  start now!).  Announce the improvement at your next group meeting ("I have found a simpler/faster way to perform this task") and share it with your team.  Put it in the source tree for your project(s).  

To summarize, automate, eliminate, or streamline tasks that are measured by your organization, and report the news of your improvements to your boss and colleagues.  Do not just do 1000 things, even if they are important to you; study the larger picture.

Web3 Is Going Great (Not) - 16 March 2024

In a move that surprised no one, Starbucks is shutting down its NFTs.

OK, to be precise, Starbucks is passing the Starbucks Stamps NFT Program over to a third-party and washing their hands.  The Starbucks Stamps NFT Program started out as a way to reward regular customers of Starbucks, but it has languished and finally gotten to the point that it is more trouble than it is worth.  So Starbucks is dumping it.

At one point, NFTs, blockchain, and blockchain-contracts were the triplet powerhouses that were going to drive Web3 into the future.  NFTs are failing left and right, blockchains and crypto-vendors are rug-pulling weekly, and e-contracts are often used to steal from crypto-vendors, so the future of Web3 is looking a little disorganized.  #NoSurprise

Reference - Engadget article, 16 March 2024 , subtitled The program ends on March 31 and its NFT marketplace will be shifted over to Nifty.

Washington 2024 Presidential Primary Results - 13 March 2024

Yesterday was the Washington Presidential Primary for Republicans and Democrats.  Washington does not require a voter to be registered in a particular party, but the voter does need to declare a preference or an affiliation for the election.  Once declared, a particular voter cannot vote for candidates from the other parties.  I did not see an Independent or an Other option, however there were protest votes.  On the Democratic side, there was a campaign underway for people to vote Uncommitted, and on the Republican side, there is a continuing effort for Nikki Haley even though she has formally withdrawn from the primary contest.  The results were that 85.6% of Democratic primary votes went to Biden while 7.5% of ballots went to uncommitted delegates, leaving 6.9% in some other category.  On the Republican side, Trump picked up 74% of votes, Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race but was still on the ballot, is pulling 22%, and the remainder were scattered for Ron DeSantis (also dropped) and some miscellaneous categories.  Some of Haley's 22% represents cross-over Democrats doing protest votes, but we cannot determine how many.  

The uncommitted-as-protest group will claim victory based on the 7.5%, however the significance of the Uncommitted vote is unclear.  The 7.5% participation is a small number of the whole and no one knows what it would have been without the protest vote.  Therefore the other side (who?) can also declare victory.  In the end, the uncommitted-as-protest campaign was much sound and fury signifying nothing.

As in the last decade, the vote was primarily by mail with scattered drop boxes usually located near libraries, post offices, and the like.   I have not heard any reports of irregularities.  

As of "Super Tuesday", Trump and Biden have clinched the required number of delegates to secure their nominations.  For all intents and purposes, the Presidential campaign season has begun.

Washington 2024 Primary Election Day - 12 March 2024

Today is the Washington primary election day and The Stranger, a local progressive newspaper, is recommending that Democrats vote for Uncommitted.  I have thoughts.

Vote for Uncommitted in the Dem primary? That has got to be the most mealy-mouthed idea I have heard since Nader was running. "Uncommitted sends a message" because of Gaza? Because of student loans? Because of inflation? Because your milk turned sour before the sell-by date? A clear message! NOT!

You could instead write a letter to the White House and your congresscritters that explicitly and clearly expresses your views. And how could The Stranger imply that TFG is even remotely acceptable?

You don't tug on Superman's cape,

You don't spit into the wind,

You don't vote Uncommitted on the Dem ballot,

And you don't give TFG a win.

Disasters Declared On This Day - 11 March 2024

The Ides of March may be being overtaken by 11 March.  On this day in 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, and on this day in 2011, the Tohoku earthquake broke the Fukushima nuclear power plant.  

Sad Tesla News - 10 March 2024

We start today with a tragedy.  According to a news report in The New York Post, "Angela Chao, the billionaire former CEO of dry bulk shipping giant Foremost Group, tragically died at the age of 50 on Feb. 10 after accidentally backing her car into the pond while making a three-point turn." If that name does not ring a bell, note that Angela Chao’s sister, Elaine Chao, is married to Senator Mitch McConnell and served as Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Secretary of Transportation in President Donald Trump’s administration.  Mitch recently retired as Minority Leader (R) in the US Senate.

Angela Chao was hosting some friends on a ranch in Texas and wanted to return to the main ranchhouse at the end of the evening.  As it was cool, she decided to drive her Tesla rather than walk the four minutes from the guest houses to the main house.  At some point along the way, she backed her car into a pond where the car sank.  

The tragedy is multiplied by the design of the Tesla.  Rather than mechanical door handles, the main doors are opened electronically with a button.  Obviously, this is not a great design for an electric car sinking in a pond (loss of power).  There is an emergency mechanical door latch, but from the descriptions, it seems that it is hard to find, especially when sinking into a pond.  Chao was trapped inside the sinking car, unable to get out.  She had enough air in the car to be able to use her cell phone to call friends, but no one was able to help in time.

Many of the prior deaths in Tesla accidents have involved fire, but this is the first to involve water.

Condolences to the Chao family.

Reference: https://nypost.com/2024/03/09/us-news/angela-chao-made-panicked-call-before-dying-in-completely-submerged-tesla-on-texas-ranch/ 

The iPhone is the new transistor - 4 March 2024

Human history is a series of quiet periods interspersed with revolutions.  So, too, science is a series of quiet periods interspersed with revolutions.  In the 1947, the invention of the transistor changed the world and in 2007, the iPhone smart phone changed the world.  It took a while for the transistor to go from laboratory curiosity to common use, but the iPhone moved into common use more quickly.  More recently, people have thought virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), bitcoin (BTC), blockchain, and artificial intelligence (AI, LLM) would be the next revolutionary step.  AI may yet change the world, but the others are racing for the dust heap of history.

Some would claim that the Internet, the World Wide Web (WWW), or computing have changed history, and these have left their marks on life, but nothing has become as pervasive and as impactful as the smart phone.  The Internet, the WWW, and computing have contributed to the march of the smart phone, but so have many other technologies such as NFT, Bluetooth, and Wifi, but the smart phone is the agent of change.

In my smart phone, I can carry my wallet (except for cash, and even Venmo would object to that exception), my keys, my identification, my theater tickets, my shopping list, my maps, and the only things I need carry now are a pocket knife and a handkerchief.  Most people do not even carry handkerchiefs anymore.  And all this fits in one pocket.

We do not always recognize the revolution when it starts; in fact, we rarely do.  Transistors were big, chunky things with poor gain (a measure of transistor quality).  Horseless carriages were hard to start and broke down easily - and they needed roads to get somewhere.  Steam trains were noisy and smelly, too.  Medicine was glorified speculation until germ theory.  

The transistor continues to change our modern world, but the smart phone has surpassed it.

Leap Day Babies and New Years Eve Babies - 2 March 2024

Babies born on Leap Day are always presented as being at a disadvantage.  Supposedly, a Leap Day baby only has birthdays every four years.  This strikes me as wrong.  The proper concern is the babies born on 31 December in a Leap Year.  Let me explain.

Simply, babies born today (as I write, it is 29 February 2024) are being born on the 60th day of the year 2024.  Your annual birthday is based on rotation about the sun and therefore it falls on the same day each year, at roughly the same angular rotation point around the sun.  This year, that falls on 29 February and next year the 60th day will fall on 1 March 2025.  No big deal.   It is the calendar that is faulty and that causes the 60th day to fall variously on 1 March and 28 February.  I see no problem.  The 60th day is the 60th day - and happy birthday to those who celebrate.  In 2025, the babies born on the 60th day will use 1 March to describe their day, but it is still the 60th day whether in 2025, 2026, or 2027.

A problem does arise at the end of the year.  In 2024, the last day of the year is the 366th day, 31 December 2024.  In 2025, 2026, and 2027, there are only 365 days in the year, therefore there is NO 366th day.  This leaves those New Years Eve babies as the ones with an issue.

Career Notes #4b: WF, Remote Work, and Soft Metrics - 7 February 2024 (original) - 1 March 2024

Someone said something on the Internet and I am upset.  

When last I wrote about WFH, I was upset at the radio, but I have now returned to being continuously upset about what someone said on the Internet.  I am a creature of habit.  As to subject matter, I was complaining about Work From Home, WFH, also known as Working Remotely.  I had spoken about "hard metrics" and was about to discuss "soft metrics".  Allow me to reestablish the rant, uh, conversation.

In the classic goal-setting process of management-by-objectives (MBO), the emphasis is on specific and measurable goals (part of the larger "S.M.A.R.T." framework for goal setting).  A classic goal is "deliver a report to the customer by the end of the quarter".  This is much more useful than "be a good employee" or "do good work" and it has the welcome attribute that there is little argument because the report gets delivered on-time or it does not.  What can one argue with?

Well, one can argue with this because of the soft metrics.  I can deliver a "report", even a long report, that is on-time but full of garbage.  The word "report", even qualified with some number of pages, is a soft metric, and so we see that metrics can be misleading and metrics can be gamed.

WFH or remote work has virtually the same problems as SMART.  It is overly fixed on things that can be measured and these things are often a narrow part of the job.  If the job is full of rote processes, then WFH can be perfect.  A customer service agent (first-line) can answer calls and reset passwords or refund orders with little supervision needed.  The rare problems can be handled with voice recordings of the customer transactions and depend on the customers to escalate situations to higher levels of support.  But not all jobs are rote and simple metrics are usualy inadequate.  Engineering, software, business and accounting positions require at least spreadsheet or database work, and art positions require lots of computer interactivity, thus many positions now include some sort of computer programming.  All of these (engineering, software, business, accounting, art) require some degree of originality and inventiveness, perhaps within bounds but still require novelty.   The behavior we want to encourage is more than just words and formulas on a page, requiring human judgement beyond simplistic metrics.  

But that human judgement often requires exposure and observation.  Management can often tell a difference in actions when practiced at the office that is not visible when working from home.   I management cannot see the individuals as they practice their expertise, it rapidly becomes hard to evaluate the level of expertise.

And that is why WFH only works for rather rote role and starts to fail as one moves through a career.

Note: I got stalled and distracted by this note.  It took multiple tries to edit it down to something readable and focused.  Therefore, there are multiple dates on the title line.

Health care has become a top target for cybercriminals - 29 February 2024

A warning about computer security for medical computing systems was recently raised by a neighbor named Steve Moeller.  He wrote:

Here is an article from the Seattle Times talking about the threat from cybercriminals to the national and local healthcare system: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/why-health-care-has-become-a-top-target-for-cybercriminals/#Echobox=1708874045 

From the article:

When a cyberattack hit Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center late last year and exposed the personal data of nearly a million patients, many were caught off guard, stunned a breach could infiltrate such a large and highly resourced health care organization. 

This is a problem and it is more widespread than most people realize.  

The Internet was designed with open access in mind, so it is proving hard to make it secure.  This means that *anything* attached to the Internet has some degree of exposure that depends on how much thought and effort the "owner" has put into security.  The answer to "how much effort" is often little to none.  This means that everything from your medical records to your banking records are at risk.  Further, your power grid, your road systems, and even your personal cars are all at risk.  The old phone system is relatively secure (ok, I remember 2600 and phone phreaks) but the new wireless systems are far more exposed.  Social media like Facebook, Instagram, Xitter, and Snapchat are all exposed, and even giants in the field like Google and Microsoft are exposed.  

My point?  You should be checking with each and every supplier you use to ask them what their security policies are.  In the main, you will find that the corporate security policies protect the corporation but you?  You are left dangling.  We need legislation that places the burden back on the corporations. 

Seattle Nisqually Earthquake 2001 - 28 February 2024

Twenty-three years ago was the Good Friday Nisqually Earthquake.  At 10:54am, I was sitting with my boss, Gene Pope, in his Amazon.com office near S. Weller and 5th Ave S in Seattle, near the International District.  At first, it sounded like a freight train rumbling from the distance and then, the shaking started.  The lights were suspended on cables from the ceiling and I remember watching them swing back and forth, swinging wider as the shaking continued.  Someone was standing nearby in an area of cubbys and I yelled something like "get under the furniture".  I do not recall if he moved or not.  After an eternity or two, the shaking stopped and we started to assess what we had.  The Seattle bus tunnel was closed for a couple of hours while the engineers checked it for damage.  After it opened, I took a bus home and continued work from there.  

There used to be an "earthquake rose" but the original seems to have been pulled from the internet.  You can read about it here -- 

https://inhabitat.com/a-beautiful-and-mysterious-rose-created-by-an-earthquake-and-a-pendulum/

Dell is telling the truth about remote work - 23 February 2024

A recent article from The Register reports on consequences of a recent return-to-the-office (RTO) program at Dell Computer.   From the article:

The implications of choosing to work remotely, we're told, are: "1) no funding for team onsite meetings, even if a large portion of the team is flying in for the meeting from other Dell locations; 2) no career advancement; 3) no career movements; and 4) remote status will be considered when planning or organization changes -- AKA workforce reductions." 

The last three points are the most significant.  The first point is optional - some companies will fund team meetings and some will not.  I think Dell is wrong on this point, but it is their company so they make their rules.  

The most important point is - no career advancement.  Let us say you are the manager and you are faced with a key decision, assigning important tasks, choosing a promotion candidate, or simply assigning bonus budget.  You have two employees, one who is often in the office where you see their work, see their interactions with other team members, and see their presentations, and a remote employee that you see intermittently, see no interactions, and see only video presentations.  Which one are you going to select for rewards and the best assignments?  Pretty obviously the on-site person.  If you think that is wrong, ask your mother if it is OK to just call from now on, and you will stop your in-person visits.  Ask yourself if you would rather put your kids to bed and read them a story rather than read a bedtime story over the phone.  No mother or kids?  What would your dog think?  Expanding on this, no career movements is a reasonable extension.  As a manager, you can choose a local candidate that you see routinely or you can choose someone who is always at the far end of a phone line.  Not hard to choose.  Finally, the old rule is "out of sight, out of mind" and that will trump over "absence makes the heart grow fonder" - when it comes time to downsize, it is far easier to lay-off someone on a phone line compared to someone you see routinely in the office.  It just is.

Note that "routinely in the office" includes hybrid and full-time office sightings.  Seeing someone Monday-Wednesday-Friday is closer to Monday-Friday than never or rarely.  I am not arguing against work-from-home, simply stating boundaries.

Furthermore:

Another employee said: "Choosing to be remote does indeed put career advancement at a standstill."

As one advances up the ranks, there are more and more leadership and team skills required to work on larger projects.  If your job is one person (you) in one place (your home or office), then advancement within these constraints is possible.  But if your job requires interactions and teams, that is best done in-person.  To advance, you need to demonsrate those leadership and team skills, and you cannot do that sitting alone in your home-office with the dog.

So if you want to be a Lyft driver or work on small projects for the rest of your life, work from home.  But if you want to advance in the corporate environment, get to the office.

10km ebike ride to awaken the limbs - 16 February 2024

After weeks of rain, a day of snow, and overnight frosts, I grabbed a partly sunny day to unwind my limbs and refresh the e-bike.  I just puddled around the neighborhood for 6.2 miles, up and down and around.  It was a bit on the cold side, 47F, but I was able to wrap up.  The main "save" was the pair of gloves that I wore.  My fingers get cold after the frostbite session on that China trip.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/sgey47DQpqEUi76HA

Bad Reporting #1: Radio Tower Stolen - 9 February 2024

No.  One does not just steal a 200-foot tall radio tower.  No.  There are two major problems with this simple-minded assertion, size and power.

The obvious problem is the size of the 200-foot tower.  It takes time and equipment to down it and haul it away.  You need a couple of hours to rig it, to lower it to the ground, to dismantle it, and then to haul it away.  The word "stolen" implies surprise or stealth.  The radio station had hours to respond to any surprise attempt to take the tower.  The police had hours to respond when called.  This tower was not stolen.  

The other problem is the electrical power being pumped into the antenna.  There are thousands of watts of power being pumped into the antenna in order to broadcast, perhaps as high as 50,000 watts, but likely less in this case.  When you walk up to the tower and touch it, you become the path to ground.  Big shock - literally.  Someone had to have the smarts to cut off the transmitter before anyone touched the tower.  Yes, the report talks about evidence of a break-in, suggesting that the thief did have the requisite smarts.  But radio stations monitor their signal - they listen to themselves to make sure they are still transmitting.  Again, no surprise is possible when the transmitter gets cut and the antenna gets "stolen".

Reporters really need to pause and think before they report this stuff.

Source: Alabama station in disbelief after 200-foot radio tower stolen at NBC News.

Privacy and the Internet Giants - 1 February 2024

Twelve years ago, Facebook went public as a multi-billion dollar company.  On today's market, Facebook (now META) has a market cap of $1T and a user base between 2 billion and 3 billion, depending on who is counting what.  This suggests that the value of a Facebook user has gone up from about $6 to about $333 (very roughly).  Why such a significant rise?  Does Facebook offer more value and function to you today than it did a decade ago?  Not really.  55x more value and function?  Far from it.  The stock market has assigned the price, so where does this value come from?

In a recent report from Consumer Reports, "Using a panel of 709 volunteers who shared archives of their Facebook data, Consumer Reports found that a total of 186,892 companies sent data about them to the social network. On average, each participant in the study had their data sent to Facebook by 2,230 companies."  And as noted by Bruce Schneier, "This isn’t data about your use of Facebook. This data about your interactions with other companies, all of which is correlated and analyzed by Facebook."

This is not Facebook/META alone - this is all the big Internet companies, including a bunch you do not know about like Palantir Technologies.  You are not a hapless victim.  Contact your representatives and senators to demand protection.  Consumer Reports probably has some good suggestios of where to start.

Career Notes #4: WFH and Remote Work - 30 January 2024

Someone said something on the radio and I am upset.  There is probably only one motive more stupid to write about than "someone said something on the Internet and I am upset", and that is the subject of my first sentence.  Someone said something stupid on the radio and I am upset.  However, I have always barged in where angels fear to tread, so I will share my thoughts on the recent resurgence of the RTO push for workers to return-to-office.  Since shortly after COVID began, there has been a vibrant discussion about the merits of working in an office compared to working from home (WFH).  It is the fodder for serious commentators as well as for the comics.  After hearing someone potificate on the radio this morning about managers who will have to learn how to support and encourage people who are WFH, I rather got to the end of my tether and -- I have thoughts.  I should say up-front that I retired as a senior manager in engineering at a high-tech company and I managed mostly highly educated people (nearly all had PhD degrees from major universities in the US).  These were (are) bright, educated, talented, and highly  motivated people eager to advance their careers and advance the fields of engineering.

When COVID began, there was a medical reason for everyone to avoid crowds and that included avoiding the shared office.  When I decided to close our local ABC Corporate office (a branch office of about 100 people and anonymized), I expected that it would be for 2-3 weeks until the pandemic abated.  I think it was pretty commonly understood that closing offices and sending people home was temporary and we would return to normalcy in a month or so.  As time went on and people continued to die from COVID, it became clear that our initial estimates were naively optimistic and that WFH (work from home) was a long-term state, verging on a year.  

While a high proportion of ABC Corporate workers could be sent home to work, there were key jobs that needed to continue on-site and in the office.  In our branch location, there were about 10 employees that needed to be in the office daily and 2-3 more that would come in occasionally.  The 10 folks needed access to labs and equipment that could only be on-site and could not be taken home.  The 2-3 folks varied each day from the 90 who were WFH - they were not usually the same individuals, but there were consistently 2-3 of them in the office.  

In our group (about a third of the 100 people in the branch), we had long-standing key metrics (KPI - Key Performance Indicator - is a common industry buzzword, but we did not use the phrase KPI).  The primary metric among these was the continued delivery of high-quality results as promised in the schedules and contracts.  As a general rule, the team was able to maintain successful delivery of all the group metrics.  From this, one might conclude that WFH was acceptable as a stable, long term strategy for the team.  After all, the overall team was spread across four primary sites already, so dispersing to homes was of marginal impact, right?  Wrong, but I have gone on too long in this posting and will reserve further thoughts for a second posting.

Although the key metrics, including consistent, timely, high-quality deliverables continued to be met, these are all "hard" metrics.  These are hard metrics because they are countable.  The deliverable was provided or it was not; the deliverable was on time or it was not; and the customer accepted the deliverable or they rejected it.  However, there were other, less countable metrics that were not always met, and many of these "soft" metrics are also on a scale, but hard to quantify.  Without covering all of the next post, consider "innovation".  There is no good measure of innovation.  There are simple measures (e.g., the number of patents authored) of these soft metrics, but simple measures can easily miscount or mislead (e.g., an idea can be patentable but it may be kept as a trade secret instead).  A more critical measure is readiness for promotion or other recognition, which is very hard to measure.

Until next time when I discuss soft metrics.

Moving Close to the Office - 29 January 2024

In a recent decree, IBM has announced that all employees must be in the office for at least three days a week, or they should plan to separate from the Company.  There is a big debate today about the value of in-office work.  A weak string of responses in Slashdot gives the usual responses of people trying to be clever, but resistence is futile.  For better or worse, IBM management has decided that this shall be and so it shall be.  Comply or pursue a voluntary separation.  

Of course, some people could try to delay in the hopes that plate tectonics will come to the rescue as the New Pangea reassembles itself.