Elon and Twitter - 28 April 2022

Elon Musk did not like something about Twitter, so he threatened to buy it to take it private, and then change something or other.  He yarbled about "free speech" but did not make a coherent statement of the problem he sought to solve nor of the solution that he would impose to solve this hypothetical problem.  

After fussing publically for a bit, he actually came up with a $42B (billion) offer that the Twitter Board of Directors took seriously.  The press announced that Elon was buying Twitter.  The regressive party (so-called "conservatives") rejoiced that "free speech and the First Amendment" would be restored, that Donald Trump would be restored to his Twitter platform of awfulness, and that the voices that they did not like (the progressives) would finally be silenced.  (Yes, so much for "free speech.")

A few more days have passed and the details are coming out.  Elon planned to use Tesla and/or SpaceX stock for multibillion dollar loans to cover part of the purchase price, and he claimed he has some backers to cover the rest.  Well, except that Tesla (TSLA) fell from about $1000/share to about $800/share in a day or so, causing Elon to lose billions of dollars.  TSLA, itself, is currently about $900B in market cap, so it was over $1T (trillion) in market cap before Elon announced that he had secured financing.  I do not know how much Elon lost, but I am guessing he lost tens of billions of dollars in the slump.

It was reported today that Elon may have lost enough on TSLA that he can no longer afford the purchase.  The report suggested that there is a $1B (billion) penalty if the acquisition does not proceed.  

I belabor all this because Elon is a lucky jerk and a poor businessman.  He spoke off the cuff to the tune of billions of dollars and I hope he pays for his stupidity.  I cannot see that he has any idea how to improve Twitter (as much as it needs improvement) and he has skirted (broken) SEC regulations several times.  I hope he gets what he deserves in this instance.

Edit to add: here is Elon's view of the political world.  His self-proclaimed victimhood is on glaring display.  

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519735033950470144

If you plotted Dwight Eisenhower on Elon's chart, Dwight would today be far-left but he was a steady conservative in his day.  Now tell me again how the political spectrum has changed?

Island Time - 28 April 2022

Keats Island is located in Howe Sound, just north of Vancouver, BC.  On the northern side of the island is Plumper Cove and we have a cottage there.  The US-Canadian border is now (generally) open to vaxxed people, so we went up for the first visit of the season on Friday, 22 April (Earth Day 2022), and returned on Tuesday, 26 April.  There are several special chores to process in this season that go beyond the usual maintenance and chores.  The weather was the usual unstable mix for the springtime season in the Pacific Northwest (Pacific Southwest for the Canadian perspective):  episodes of sunshine, clouds, and rain in sequences.

Normal chores include restoring the water system, mowing the lawn, pruning some of the shrubbery near the house, cleaning the paths by the house, and general cleaning (cobwebs and dead mice).

This year, we have some added chores.  One of the bathrooms developed a stench, just a plain old funky stink.  It also appears to have developed a leak on the water feed.  Both require further diagnosis.  At the end of last season, I did some major tree-trimming that I need to finish up this year; in particular, I need to remove a large stub branch from a cedar tree that I trimmed.  I also have 2-3 large cedars to remove that will allow sunshine on the cabin in the mornings.   These trees are nestled in and around the switchback trail that goes up behind the cabin; one is a concern because it could take out a power line if it falls astray, and another is a concern because it is big and parts may reach to hit the cabin.  I have trimmed this tree before, but not for 20 years.  I want to remove two standing stumps, one from last year and the other from a decade ago (left for obscure reasons) - both are 8-10 feet tall.  I want to regravel the trail up to the cabin from the boathouse.  To reclaim the picnic area (rarely used becaue of shadow), I need to get the large rounds of cedar up to the woodhouse.  After two years of enforced neglect (COVID), I need to do a lot of pruning to free up trails.  Finally, I want to revitalize the lawn and recall it from a mossy takeover.  

In summary,

1. Renew my fishing (crabbing-prawning) license for 2022.
2. Bathroom fixes.
3. Remove large stub branch.
4. Remove two tall stumps.
5. Remove three cedars.
6. Move cedar to firewood house.
7. Restore the lawn.
8. Prune, prune, prune.

I have been thinking about the bathroom stench and came up with a theory.  The situation is more complex than it may seem and a precise diagnosis has been difficult.  After some thinking, I decided that the wax sealing ring had failed in the heat dome (110F temperatures hit the area in the summer of 2021) and that we were smelling the septic tank, leaking past the now-spoiled wax seal.  When we got up to the cabin, I removed the wall-mounted toilet bowl expecting to find a sagging wax ring.  I had a replacement ready to go.  Imagine my surprise when I found that European-designed wall-mounted toilets do not have wax rings.  They use a close-fitting pipe junction with some sealant.  I have since ordered some sealant and will apply it at the next opportunity.  However, I am not convinced this will solve the stench problem.  While the toilet bowl is off, we have a 4-inch open pipe leading to the septic tank - and no stench.  Perhaps the organic load was processed over the winter and the septic tank is now smelling minty fresh (I exaggerate), but I do not quite believe that.  I expect a residual aroma, at least, but there is no significant stink.  I temporarily boarded over the black-water hole and more experiments are required.

I did remove and cut up the large stub branch.  I was going to cut it in two pieces from the tree, but I could only find one safe place to put the ladder and that allowed only one cut.  In the photo to the side, it is difficult to make out the branch, but it is pointing toward the viewer from the large, warped tree above the wood shed.  The cedar tree was topped years ago (40?) and this triggered the branches to grow.  This is a typical pattern in cedars that are topped; the surviving branches compete to become the new top, so they sweep out and then grow up.  These sweeping branches can also grow suckers that are easy to see in the photo - slender shoots that go straight up from the branch.  Because of the way this one had been topped, the side, swoopy branches grew thick to support tall "subtrees" that were trying to become the new top (leader).  the branches needed great girth to support the mass of the upwards growth.  The target stub was about 4-5 feet long, about 12-18 inches wide, and about 2-3 feed high to support all that weight.

As I mentioned, my original thought was to cut the stub in two pieces.  The branch was about 10 feet in the air, so I needed a ladder to reach it.  Because I could not place the ladder safely except leaning against the trunk, I was forced to cut the stub in one piece.  It was a monster.  In retrospect, I will guess it was a half-tonne or a full tonne (wet, living cedar is heavy).  I made a small undercut and then went at the main cut.  It took a while, maybe five minutes, and the stub started to fall under its own weight.  The timing was great and the undercut worked as planned - the stub came off cleanly.  And then it bounced down the hill to rest against the wood shed.  One of the bounces was unfortunately against the wood shed.  Fortunately, although there is a crack in the wall, the shed was well constructed and survives in fine shape.  I will patch the crack from the inside, but it is cosmetic.

I would like to remove the cedar tree, or trim it in a major way, but it is a privacy shield between us and the neighbors, so it shall remain.  After dropping the stub, I spent 30 minutes or so cutting it into more manageable pieces.  This is not really "splittiing", but it got the pieces small enought that I could pile them in and around the wood shed for further drying.  This created a lot of sawdust and I burned through a full tank of gas for the chainsaw.  You can see some of the "chunks" in the photo.  

I trimmed the tree in the first place (last year, especially, but also in prior years) because it had adopted a very unhealthy growth habit that would eventually cause it to drop limbs on top of a trail and on the passers-by using that trail.  The recent trimming left an odd stub that, at first, I was willing to tolerate, but became uglier over time (the opposite of "grew on me").  The tree now has a large, oval scar, but the growth habit is improved (still not great, far from it, but if I cut much more we will start to lose the privacy screening capability).

The tall stumps will be quicker to remove.  One, not far from the tree in the photos, will take 30 minutes or less.  I left it because I did not want a trip hazard for Graham on a trail he used often.  But Graham's days on the island have become few and so I will cut it now and cut it as low to the ground as I can.  The other tree is by the corner of the deck on the cabin.  It will take longer to cut, mainly because it is on a severely sloping hill and steady footing is hard to find.  But another 30-45 minutes.  Both will end up in the wood shed, although I may try to take some lumber from the long-standing stump.  It could become a kayak paddle if the wood is in good shape.  Maybe.

The lawn is a mess.  It has been battered by two summers of neglect, one of which included the famed heat dome, and not even a trace of fertilizer.  The winters have been perfect for moss (as measured by the results in Redmond), and moss has really taken over.  I plan to use a water-vinegar spray to kill or stun the moss.  Then I have to remove it, somehow - I hate the idea of raking it but I also do not want to take the dethatcher up for a small job.  So - raking it shall be.  Then some grass seed and some hope.  Given the water supply at the cabin, I do not plan to water any grass.

I am ever optimistic that I will catch crab and prawns.  I may even try some hook fishing for finfish.  Therefore, I need to renew my saltwater fishing license for BC.  This can be done on-line, I just need to remember to do it.  I am old-fashioned enough that I feel I should have a paper copy and not just an electronic copy; and I need to get some bait.  Finaly, I shall also check for a senior-citizen discount.

Chores are calling.

Seven Pounds - 15 April 2022

Quickly lose weight!  I just lost about seven pounds.  It may be temporary but it sure was fast.  My secret?  Well, I shall tell you.

COVID seems to be winding down.  I emphasize seems because the hospitalization numbers are down, I have my full vaxx and booster, and the weather is getting nicer.  After two years of caution and lock-in, it feels like it should be OK to get out and circulate a little among selected (healthy) groups. So I did.  We have a group, a delegation, visiting Seattle from France.  Although 2020 was the 45th anniversary of the twinning of Seattle (USA) and Nantes (FR), COVID postponed the plans for an exchange of delegate groups.  In early 2022, all the signs were shaping up and they culminated in a group of 40-50 visitors from Nantes arriving in Seattle.  The group represented maritime, aviation, elected/municipal, and cultural interests.  From this, a series of meetings and explorations were planned throughout the week to explore opportunities.  During the times of roaring COVID, we had arranged cultural exchanges such as art shows and a collaborative beer, #8000Kilometers with Lantern Brewing, and some face-time allowed us to seek other common interests and issues.  

As a cultural and social activity, the local Seattle-Nantes Sister City Association hosted a potluck dinner that featured local and American foods.  This brought people together for an evening of socializing.  We were brave: we went without masks indoors.  I left the event very tired and went to bed somewhat late.

It was not a pleasant night.  I woke in the middle of the night with classic symptoms of the flu.  A low-grade fever, general pains, nausea, dry heaves.  I was sorta-kinda OK until I went into the kitchen for some water.  The lingering smell of warmed pizza (a midnight snack for someone else) hit me like a bat and I went straight for the toilet to empty my stomach.  I went back to bed and repeated this dry/wet pattern a couple more times.  I was pretty empty, dehydrated, groggy, and listless.  I belabor all this because I do not think it was COVID - no breathing problems at all - just classic influenza symptoms coming down hard.  I basically napped the next day and only kept down about four ounces of water throughout the day.  The second night was unpleasant but far better than the first.  I slept better, even after napping much of the day, and did not need to get up.

During this time, I skipped a pub crawl in the Ballard area one evening and a mayoral reception in Seattle the next.  Sacrifices were made.

I woke up the next morning feeling fine.  A bit dehydrated throughout the day, but alert and feeling fine.  

So with this as context, I dropped seven pounds in 48 hours.  I do not recommend the method, but I must admit it is effective.  I shall do my best to make the advances stick and even multiply them, but that is only a silver lining from a very dark cloud.

The photo is from the Seattle Japanese Garden in the Arboretum.

Because of Easter weekend, US Taxes are due Monday, 18 April.

Backup your data - 4 April 2022

Backups are your friend.

I was working for a large company in the 1980s that was delivering a large project to replace thousands of "dumb" terminals (think "IBM 3270", but not as smart) and dumb displays with "smart" PC-based systems connected on a large LAN.  The Great PC Invasion and Distributed Computing Revolution were underway, so the company had hired a a collection of experienced PC and minicomputer programmers who were led by a management team of Mainframe Gods (as they viewed themselves).  As a bunch of hot-shot PC and UN*X types, we demanded a version control system and a tool for backing up the source tree.  In their wisdom, the Mainframe Gods chose not to invest in spurious tech like backups and version control, therefore each programmer had a personal responsibility to back up their source code.  As you might imagine, this was only loosely honored by most of the staff.  For all intents and purposes, there was no backup.  There was, however, one developer who was nominally the build engineer and therefore kept all the current, official source in one place:  on his PC.  Let us call him Bob because that is not his name.  

Bob was a big guy.  He was at least six feet tall and sturdily built - think "footballer" but soft, pudgy, and pale.  Bob was soft-spoken and kept his opinions to himself.  Mostly.  He had his eccentricities, such as a fondness for rifles that he kept in the trunk (boot) of his car.  He was a hard worker and wrote a lot of code.  Lacking any sort of code-review process, I cannot say how good the code was, but he wrote a lot of it and he delivered the official software builds for the terminal-emulation software that ran on the PCs.  To do the build, he had the sole copy of all the official source code residing on his PC.

After a long-running series of, uh, issues, Bob had a Big MeToo moment of such significance that he quit simultaneously with being fired.  Rather than make a fuss, management allowed Bob to finish the work day.  During the afternoon of that day, Bob's manager looked out the window to see Bob loading boxes and boxes of floppy disks into his car.  This was a curious action to take on one's final day of work.  On a hunch, Bob's manager went to Bob's desk and found Bob's PC in the midst of a FORMAT operation that had wiped most of the disk.  And thereby wiped the only known copy of the official sources from the face of the earth.  Bob's manager intercepted him at the elevator and they walked together to Bob's manager's office for a conversation.  It seems that the floppies in Bob's car were the backups, the ONLY backups now that his PC disk was blank.  To his credit, Bob's manager talked Bob off the cliff and got the backups returned to the office.  Then he escorted Bob to a nearby coffee shop to finish the day off-premises.  Someone was tasked to extract the backups from the floppies to the now-blank PC so that we could continue the project.  The project did eventually succeed, but we did have further harrowing moments with more conventional causes.  We did establish regular backups and duplication of key source code.

The moral of the story:  back up your data.  Trust but verify.