I reformatted the outboard drive. Fortunately, I had just upgraded my Time Machine drive so that I could back up both the integral and the outboard drives. I thought myself lucky and then I started up Time Machine to recover the contents. It worked well for a while, then Time Machine complained that the outboard drive was case-insensitive and I was trying to restore Mac Photos files with mixed case.
I stopped at this point because we had some traveling to do. When I got back, I tried to restore again and got the same error from Time Machine. I bit the bullet and re-reformated the drive to be case-sensitive. OK, should be solved. Unfortunately, by this time, it had been about two weeks since the original failure, and Time Machine no longer has backups that are pre-failure. I have tried repeatedly over the last week, and I just cannot get Time Machine to cough up a pre-failure copy of the outboard drive.
I have been in a bit of denial, but cold truth is cold truth. I was starting to think about how I could restore files from my off-site backup. You have a three-level backup strategy, right? A primary, a local backup, and a remote backup, yes? Well, I do. I have lost files before and I plan never to do it again. Then I had a flash of insight. I had replaced the 2 Tby outboard drive with a 4 Tby outboard drive toward the end of 2022, and I still have the old 2 Tby outboard drive. It is not a whole backup, but it is better than dragging 2 Tby from my off-site backups.
I am now in the process of copying over from the 2 Tby outboard drive to the 4 Tby outboard drive. When that is done, I shall start recovering the last six months of data. I am very annoyed at Apple, but I have a plan that I think will work.
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