Twenty years ago, a flip-phone was considered the peak of technology for mobile phones. Nokia dominated the industry. Voice and text were the dominant applications (we did not use the phrase at the time) - some limited web browsing was likely possible, but it was really, really crappy. An integrated camera might be one megapixel on a high-end phone, maybe as poor as 640x480 on a typical phone. I am not looking at references but that is probably a reasonable summary. In a revolutionary move, the iPhone was introduced by Apple in 2007 (announced in January, units delivered to US customers on 29 June and then worldwide in 2008). Since then, a touch screen and ability to run general applications has been the backbone of the mobile phone. An article today asks where the mobile phone will be in 10 years.
https://gizmodo.com/what-will-smartphones-be-like-in-10-years-1848138666
I thought I would answer this question. I have been thinking about this for the last 5-6 years and have some predictions. Most of the predictions I have seen are along the lines of "more of the same" - more bits and colors on the screens, longer battery life, faster CPUs and applications. I think these answer the wrong question. I think we need to turn the question around and ask what problems are being solved by a smartphone-like device.
A smartphone is not just a phone: it is a computer. Therefore it has storage, compute, input, and output. In today's form, we call these FLASH, CPU, keyboard & voice, and screen & speakers. But that is a narrow definition. As Scott McNealy and SUN Microsystems have said, the network is the computer. Applying this thought, the smartphone is the connection to a larger world, a network of storage, computers, input devices, and output devices. We used to store music but now we stream it; the storage is in the cloud. We used to run apps directly on the phone, but now there is a distrubuted model (think about how Siri, Alexa, Maps, and other apps work). We are surrounded by inputs such as location, sounds, text/typing, and gestures. We consume output in the form of displays and spoken prompts ("recalculating..."). We are limited by power as seen by the eternal complaints about limited batteries and carrying auxilliary batteries to "make it through the day". These are all limitations of the small form-factor of the current smartphone. We are also facing new demands and applications such as payment through the smartphone (Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo). And we are starting to see the smartphone as a means of identity - you can open your front door or start you car with your phone; this exposes security concerns to be solved.
If we combine all these things, we can get a clearer idea of where smartphones are going. Ultimately, they will be little radios: to talk to the cloud storage and compute; to the cellular network for text, voice, and data; to connect to the input and output devices around us (Bluetooth, WiFi, others); and to provide credentials for purchase or access. These radios will have enough compute capability to work with the cloud for larger storage and compute problems; some local storage will be available for caching, but only part of the vast data resources - your top-100 playlist may be on the device, but your total collection will remain in the cloud, perhaps in the form of a subscription. Similarly, your smartphone will do just enough computation to get you thru day-to-day, and bigger compute will be in the cloud - this is a form of "compute caching". Computation and storage are useless if they cannot connect to the user, so we get to the input-output devices.
I am surrounded by screens. I have a 16-inch screen on my laptop, a 30-inch screen on my workstation, a 60-inch screen in my living room. when I get in my car, I have another screen. When I get on an airplane, I have yet another screen. Cabs in Japan have screens, so it is nothing to add them to taxis and Uber cars in the US. None of these require power from my device - they have their own power sources. My smartphone only needs to be able to connect - wirelessly, I presume. Screens are so cheap that they will appear in kitches, bedrooms, airport waiting rooms, dental waiting rooms, and -- everywhere, and all of them with their own power sources outside my smartphone. Technology like ChromeCAST and AirPlay show that screens outside my smartphone can be drawn into service. Even you glasses can be used. Input devies are even easier - for $100, I can get a device that projects a keyboard on any flat surface to allow me to type. Some evolution of this idea will allow tablet and keyboard style input. But voice and gestures will be even more common than today's Siri, Alexa, and Hey Google.
Security is the next big problem to solve. all of these wireless connections (cloud, screen, Bluetooth, Wifi) are openings for attacks. But the smartphone device can be programmed to carry my secret keys and allow secure communications. this is not a solved problem, but the proliferation of VPNs and two-factor verification give a sense of where this is going. Note also that payment systems systems depend on this being solved, or your bank account will be eternaly zero. Finally, the proliferation of COVID vaccination status shows that identity is closely tied to smartphones as the carrier. This simple example will be expanded to include access to cloud services from subscription feeds to financial transactions in increasingly secure methods.
Camera is the one app I have neglected Some sort of on-board display seems necessary to make a camera work and a small display can be used for other purposes as well, to display security codes as well as directions and red/yellow/green indicators for whatever purpose.
In the end, we have a small device - anything from a TicTac box to a deck of cards - with a camera lens, a small display (1-in by 1-in, for example), limited storage and CPU, radios, and a battery. Everything else will come from outside and be displayed outside. For most of the day, you will not even take it out of your pocket.
I tried to convince a colleague of this idea when we were walking in Beijing, both there on a business trip about eight years ago - roughly 2006. He was not buying it; his predictions were wrapped around more-of-the-same (better screens, better batteries, a smartphone to the core). Therefore, my 10-year prediction may take longer than 2031 to arrive, but I think it inevitable.
--andy
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