Nantes Park, Seattle WA - 27 March 2022

Yesterday was a big day for Nantes Park in West Seattle, WA.  While a part of the City of Seattle, West Seattle is a neighborhood that carries a distinct identity and history.  Today, it is a bit isolated from downtown Seattle by the repairs being done to the West Seattle Bridge, but West Seattle is adjacent to the original settlement of Seattle, now known as Alki Point.  (I am a little muddled on the details, but the history is there.)  But back to our story.

In conjunction with the local neighborhood group and the Seattle Department of Parks and Recreation, the Seattle-Nantes Sister City Association (SNSCA) is in the midst of a restoration project for Nantes Park.   In addition to a general refurbishment of the grounds, SNSCA is installing a new walkway in the park that is ADA compliant, an art project for the sinuous knee-wall, and an art project for the butterfly friendly garden.  

The wall project is to install a set of ceramic tiles featuring art from students in Seattle WA and Nantes, France.  The tiles will add color to the park as well as a bit of French culture by incorporating quotes from French artists.

The garden project is a set of whimsical heads on mythical creatures.

My descriptions are lacking - the art additions are designed to make the park more welcoming to kids.

As a fund-raiser, the SNSCA and the Seattle Sister Cities Association have published a cookbook, The International Table, available directly from SNSCA and at bookstores throughout metropolitan Seattle.  The cookbook features recipes selected to represent favorite foods of the varied sister cities of Seattle yet remain approachable by the American cook.

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson - 22 March 2022

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is presently being reviewed by a committee of the U.S. Senate for a position on the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS).  There are many arguments coming up.  We can put aside the arguments from the people that want Yet Another White Man because they are so familiar and so expected.  The noisy protestations from Cruz, Hawley, Graham, and Blackburn (I think) fall along the expected lines based on racism and hot-button issues with little inherent meaning (CRT - Critical Race Theory), and so the argument that stands significant to me is the split along originalism and "lived experience".  

A repeated argument in favor of Judge Jackson is that she expands the SCOTUS to represent a broader slice of America.  She adds a point of view not already on the court, not in the history of the court.  Besides being the first black woman on SCOTUS, and besides being one of the few women on the SCOTUS, she is an experienced defense attorney.  She was a public defender, defending those arrested for crimes.  Further, she has defended some of those locked up in Guantanamo for crimes during the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.  Most (perhaps even all) prior Justices on SCOTUS have had experience on the prosecuting side of cases rather than the defense side.  The Judge's experience broadening perspective of the Court is viewed as a Good Thing.  The Judge is expected to apply her "lived experience" as a defense lawyer to issues brought to the SCOTUS.

The originalists generally advocate a literal interpretation of the Constitution.  They feel that the words of the Constitution must carry the argument.  If the Constitution does not mention "privacy", then there can be no "right of privacy"; the Constitution states a "right to bear arms", so there is an impregnable right to "bear arms"; and so on.  This originalist model is either lazy or intellectually bankrupt.  It is lazy when one fails to take the words from 1789 and adapt them to nearly 250 years of change.  The 1789 document, itself, is a replacement for the Articles of Confederation that were barely two decades old, and the 1789 document, itself, spells out procedures to amend (change) the very document.  The originalist model is intellectually bankrupt because it denies the 27 amendments, it denies 250 years of change in the world, and because it binds us to a mind-reading exercise of a group of white men from 250 years ago.  White men who owned property, who owned slaves, who were only familiar with 18th Century technology, and white men who, themselves, were arguing that change is a necessary part of the human existence.  The famed original authors did not ever argue for stasis or stagnancy or they would never have started out on the revolutionary path that they followed.  The Jeffersons and Franklins of the 18th Century argue in favor of change and in favor of adapting to lived experience.

The reactionaries of today, generally the GOP Republicans, and the Federalist Society are arguing that our judicial system be run on the basis and mores of the 18th Century, and such an argument is bogus.

Let us proceed with all due haste to confirm Judge Jackson to the Supreme Court.

Masking protocols - 18 March 2022

 Across Washington, the COVID-defense masks are no longer required in most areas.  We spent months (years?) dealing with mask mandates, finally learning to remember to wear them and now - poof! - gone.  We spent uncounted dollars experimenting with various designs and quality, finally settling on some cone-like N95 masks.  Early on, the masks were nearly a dollar each for disposables and the price has dropped dramtically (less than $0.25 each).  We have learned how to air them out for reuse.  All that is now by the wayside.  Or is it?

While the state no longer requires masks, a new Omicron variant is growing in the world.  China seems to be suffering and the maps show that Japan is stressed.  There are areas of the map showing some success over the virus, but I believe that there are agencies of note that are faking the numbers.  Florida reports numbers similar to or better than Washington (state), and that is simply not believable.  But I was talking about masks.

I have decided that I will continue to wear a mask routinely in public areas.  With people I know, I can make an informed choice to wear or not wear a mask, but for the public areas where I have little or no knowledge (generally indoors, but specifically stores), I will continue to wear a mask.  This raises the question - what if someone accosts me about my mask?

I initially thought of a couple of responses.  Silence has merit; just ignore the bozo.  Unfortunately, some of the bozos will not be ignored, they will continue to press their case in the face of silence, and they will not be disuaded.  I thought about responding, "my body, my choice", but that gives a mistaken impression of support for those who refused to wear masks when they were mandated.  And there is the problem that many of the bozos will not understand.  I thought about saying "condition of my parole" as a humorous response, but many bozos are humor-impaired.  

After further consideration, I have decided that I will take surreptitious looks to the left and the right, then quietly say "facial recognition" in a knowing tone of voice.  I feel this is sufficiently mocking of the Qanon folks and it is positive.  Those outside the bozo and Qanon communities will understand the joke.  I hope.

 

Fourteen days and counting - 10 March 2022

The Russian 2022 Invasion of Ukraine continues and we have reached the two-week point.  I just watched a video of a YouTuber that I generally follow.  He left Ukraine shortly after the 2022 Invasion started and made his way to Budapest, Hungary.  His name is Johnny and his recent video is here.  It makes me think a bit more about Putin's motives, options, intentions, and the invasion.  

The people who expect this Invasion to be over soon are severely optimistic.  The good-hearted people of Hungary and Poland are responding with great generosity.  They are accepting a large influx of displaced peoples and making arrangements for the people to have a place to stay and food to eat.  Other countries are constructing special immigration conditions and visas to allow the displaced people to move out across Europe.  This is great now, but how long can it last?  How long can someone in Budapest have a small family living in a spare bedroom?  How long can the collective countries provide a river of food and supplies for this guests?  Even the good-hearted have their limits.

And what about the displaced peoples themselves?  They do not want hand-outs.  They do not want a life of living in the corners of someone else's life.  They want to live and work in a society.  They want to build a better society.  All the goodwill and handouts in the world will not give them purpose.  In the West, we need to understand this situation.  We need to understand Putin's intentions and what will make him stop.

As I mentioned a couple days ago, he may leave this mortal coil.  That would bring a quick end, but then we need to think about Putin's successor.  Will that person be better?  Or worse?  Lenin was a monster, but Stalin was worse.  Gorbachev and Yeltsin showed some degree of improvement, but then Putin came along.  This is a great, looming question.

It seems reasonable to predict that Putin will continue to prosecute his war.  It may not take the few days that he expected but the sunk cost and the consequences of failure will keep Putin and the entire Russian military moving forward.  If the military machine stalls, we could have a stalemate, a front that lives in-place.  That is the lesson of Crimea.  Putin could be happy with that outcome for another decade.  He would declare the de-Nazification suffessful and complete, and everyting would settle down along some line of battle.  The (generally) eastern portions of Ukraine would gradually become fully integrated into Russia; the (generally) western portions of Ukraine would assemble some sense of normalcy and resume a shadowed existence.  The shadow hanging over them would be the next Putin invasion, somewhere around 2027-2030 to grab the next bit of Ukraine.  This is something like the Korea model, now approaching 70 years old.  If some sort of guerilla war continues, it would be more like the Viet Nam model.

It seems highly unlikely that the Russian army would do any meaningful sort of retreat.  Such would be predicated on the end of Putin, either via the mortal coil departure, via some internal struggle or replacement by parties in Moscow, or a combination of the two.  Putin can stop the Russian Army but he cannot retreat.

All of the above could take years to resolve, during which the fighting will continue with some degree of intensity.  As the weather gets better in the summer and fall, the fighting will probably get more intense, while the winter cold and spring rains will probably reduce the level of fighting, although not stopping it.

During those years, what will the western nations do?  And what will China do?  It seems that China will exploit the situation, leverage its position as the only large trading partner remaining wiht Russia.  The US can do little about this because of the massive Chinese Manufacturing System.  If China stops or merely slows the manufacture of electronics, clothing, appliances, and component parts necessary for comfort in the western countries, there will be sudden changes in support.  The price of gasoline (petrol) has gone up in the last two weeks and people (Fox News) are already questioning why we are against Russia in Ukraine.  (For the record, Tucker Carlson of FOX News on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Laura Ingraham is not far from Carlson.)  So China will continue to support Russia and keep something resembling an economy alive in Russia.  This will be done in some manner beneficial to China, but it shall be done.

And what will happen to support for Ukraine in the US when the newest Apple iPhone is delayed?  When the clothing stores start to run out of all that stuff?  Will Americans continue to accept explanations that blame the "supply chain" or will they demand that their electronic addiction be satisfied?  Will they pay more for jeans made in the US or will they demand cheap clothing from China?  

The good news is that the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be moving to the chronic stage and will kill fewer people.  The COVID-19 story of the last two years is (sort of) going away.  The bad news is that Putin invaded Ukraine and it will take years to recover.

Spring is springing - 8 March 2022

 After the sunny days of recent times, I expected another sunny day today, but no such luck.  After the rain passage this morning, I got out for a little clean-up in the yard.  In particular, I scraped rust and flaking paint from the trellises, sanded them, and applied a rust converter.  They are actually in pretty good shape, so it was not a lot of work.  I will let the rust converter dry overnight and then apply another anti-rust spray before I finally apply some finish paint.

The photo has nothing to do with the yardwork or the rust work, but it presents a sense of the spring-like weather we have had in the last few days.

Twelve days and counting... for many more days - 8 March 2022

Putin directed the Russian forces to invade the non-Crimea part of Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, about twelve days ago.  The larger war started in about February 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and started an on-going conflict in Donbas.  Many American citizens, American journalists, and people around the world are cheering the military resistance of the Ukrainian forces and take some sort of a positive view of the imminent results.

I regret to say that I believe this is going to be a long war.  Years long, if not perpetual (for a poetic definition of "perpetuity").  I will lay out my thinking here.

Afghanistan.  The Soviet-Afghan war ran a decade, from about 24 Dec 1979 to 15 Feb 1989 (says Wikipedia).  This was a bloody war, an expensive war, and a losing war, but they pursued it doggedly.  (I am sad to add that the American political leaders learned nothing from this and proceeded to repeat the foolishness from about 2001-2021, but that is another screed.)  The Soviets learned nothing from their Afghan invasion and are applying that same stupidity to their present war.  This is a repeating theme.  Another way of saying this is to observe that blood and treasure mean little to the Russian elite in their attempts to gain land and prestige; I do not pretend to understand what they see as "prestige" but it is clear that it is important to that leadership.

Chechnya.   The Russians fought a scortched-earth policy to pursue the Chechen wars and all they got was a phyrric victory or two.  As in Afghanistan, the (now) Russians poured blood and treasure into the wars, claimed land and prestige, and learned nothing.

Crimea.  The Russians annexed Crimea in about March 2014 at minor cost.  They continued some form of war in Donbas at minor cost.  They learned something from this case - that military force can be applied without major consequences.

Trump.  The Russians learned that a stooge like Trump can give them everything they want without overt cost.  It has taken a year, but Putin has finally realized that the stooge is out of office, so he has returned to traditional methods - military force.

Ukraine.  Although the early days of the Russian invastion of Ukraine in 2022 are going badly for Russia, the willingness of Putin to pour blood and treasure into the invasion in order to achieve his political goal of restoring Ukraine to the Russian Empire will make it impossible for him to give up or turn back.  The blood and treasure are not important to him, but the land and prestive are - as we have seen before.  

This leads to consideration of the possible outcomes.  In no particular order, I shall tread heavily where learned people fear to tread.

Low-level war for an extended period.  I suspect this is the most likely outcome.  The Ukraine government and people will resist with the covert and overt support of other countries throughout the world, but featuring support from the US, EU/NATO, and allied countries.  As in Viet Nam and the East, as in the colonial struggles across Africa, and as in South America, one bloc of the world will stimulate military action and the other bloc of the world will support efforts to resist military action.  Nominally, the Ukrainian resistance will be a democratic government against the autocracy of Putin, but the West has shown that this is not required.  Expected duration is on the order of a decade and the expected result is unclear (hard to predict).  In any outcome, it will not be pretty for Ukraine.  One big unknown is the duration of the firm resistance (sanctions) by other governments.  If Biden or Macron are replaced by weaker individuals, the alliances could well slip into posturing and this would allow Putin to survive and even prosper.  The bumbling of Boris Johnson and the UK government is a case study, especially as they are distracted by the aftermath of Brexit.  If Biden is replaced in 2024 by a dimwit from the Republican ranks, resistance to Putin will quickly go the way of BJ et al.

Putin's exit.  If things get bad enough in Ukraine and in Russia, the autocrats and bureaucracy in Russia could find a convenient replacement for Vladimir Putin.  This is very unpredictable.  Putin is happy to crack down on the population to quell opposition and independent journalism, so it is unlikely that the populus will rise up against Putin.  That means the oligarchs and autocrats must manage and direct the bureaucracy (and the military) to move Putin out of the picture, either suddenly (perhaps through violent means) or gradually (less violent).  Putin will not go willingly, and he has spent the better part of the last two decades pruning the bureaucracy to eliminate dissent and nurturing the oligarchs to cement their loyalty.  The pressure of sanctions must hit hard against the wealthy in Russia, hard enough to make their lives miserable, before they will even consider action.  Eventually, one of them will be brave enough to restack the apples on the cart so that Putin is rolled into the bin.

Putin's trauma.  Senator Lindsay Graham has called for the assassination of Putin (I find it strange  and seriously out-of-character that Senator Ted Cruz opposes this, but the idea is so blindly stupid that even Cruz sees it as a bridge too far;  so far, we have no word from the nutcakes like Greene and Boebert, so maybe the spoke to Cruz before blathering in public).  To be complete, there is a remote chance that Putin will suffer a sudden health set-back, either through natural forces or as induced by an otherwise unpredictable vector.  I call this The Mule Factor after the character in the Asimov Foundation novels.  The character of The Mule is an unpredictable factor that intrudes on the orderly predictions of Hari Seldon and his mathematics, destablizing the Foundation and placing the Galatic order at risk.  Putin, himself, is somewhat of a Mule, and an anti-Putin would also be a Mule.  While we can make predictions about large groups of people, the actions and decision of a single individual are very difficult to anticipate.  Therefore, the singular event of trauma that removes Putin from consideration cannot be predicted with any confidence at all.  

The rise of Putin has been a singular event and that event or process can end in many ways.  There is a much longer screed that could be written about this, but Yeltsin (a Mule) gave way to Putin (a Mule), creating much unpredictability and confusion.  In a similar way, the incompenance and stupidity of Trump (a Mule) was easily manipulated by Putin, creating much unpredictability and confusion.  In light of this compounded confusion of unpredictable players and forces, the rest of the world has fallen back into traditional patterns that are derived from the Cold War.  We are looking at a restoration of a Communist bloc and a Western bloc with new names and revised players.  There is also the possibility of a Chinese bloc rising, but the world would align along two or three great divisions.  We may learn yet more from the foresight of Orwell.

I would like to hope that Putin slips away in his sleep in the next few days, but then we have to think about his replacement and it is not at all clear who that would be or what policies they might pursue.  The future is very hard to predict, so let us think of cats.

The Official First Mowing of 2022 - 6 March 2022

Yesterday was the last day for which sunset is before 6pm until late October.  The Vernal Equinox arrives in two weeks.  After much snow and rain, the weather has started to warm a bit into the upper 40s and touching 50F.  Therefore, the grass has decided to grow again and it is necessary to start to mow again.  With a break in the rains and a few sunny days, I charged up the batteries overnight to be ready for today.  I pulled out the new mower, an EGO battery-powered self-propelled mulching mower; there is probably an acronym for that, but EGO BPSPMM does not roll off the tongue and I shall not use it.  I was confident that I was prepared and ready to mow.  How hard can this be?

I put on my safety shoes, a pair of old hiking boots now retired.  I pulled the mower handle to full length and locked it in place.  I rotated the handle to the middle position to be comfortable for my height.  I slotted in the battery with a solid push, punched the ON/OFF button, pulled the safety bail, and pushed the go-forward palm-buttons.  The mower lit up and moved forward.  Unfortunately, the mower was strangely quiet and there did not seem to be any mowing action taking place.  The grass was pushed over but did not appear trimmed behind me.  

I probably violated a dozen safety warnings when I put the mower up on a pair of sawhorses so that I could see what was going on underneath.  The oddly quiet bit that I had noticed earlier was confirmed by inspection: the blades were not rotating.  I started with some simple diagnostics: battery fully seated (the mower propelled itself but maybe another contact was not supplying power for the blades), reseat the battery, switches fully depressed, headlights work, mower handle fully extended and locked in place.  No joy, so I came into the house to check some YouTube videos.

The first two videos both concluded that a safety switch in the handle extension/lock device was the problem and the solution was to bypass the switch.  I was reluctant to bypass a safety device, so I watched a third video.  This guy started going down the same path, dismantling various housings to inspect the wiring and switches beneath each.  When he got to the main housing where my hands go (as the operator), he took apart and demonstrated how the main power switch works.  This was the aha! moment.  I had taken the ON/OFF switch as the usual push-on-push-off momentary toggle switch.  Not so!  There is a mechanical interlock involved with the starting bail, so one pushes the ON/OFF switch and holds it while pulling on the starting bail.  I had released the ON/OFF switch, so the mechanical interlock did not engage when I pulled back the bail.  

User error.

Once I held the ON/OFF switch will engaging the bail, everything worked fine.  I mowed the three tranches of the lawn with no problems.  I have not yet turned the outside water back on, so the hose cleaning will have to wait until the next mowing party.  After mowing the front yard, the battery has only descended by one bar (from 5-full to 4-partial).

Two notes on the grass.  The grass seed that I applied a month ago did little.  I speculate that it has been too cold to sprout, therefore it went to feed the birds.  Furthermore, any seed that may have remained was probably washed away by the rains.  The other note is that the moss is doing well.  Major swathes of the bright green lawn are moss rather than grass, so I have to get out the dethatcher for a workout.  Given that I am also struggling with moss on the asphalt of the driveway and the cement of the walkways, this is no surprise.  This has been a really good year for moss.

Doctor and Scouter Doug Lambrecht - 2 March 2022

Yesterday was the two-year anniversary of the death of Dr. Doug Lambrecht.  I knew Doug through BSA Scouting as well as his sons and family.  COVID reached the shores of the United States in 2020 through a nursing home in Kirkland.

First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns

Doug was recovering from medical treatment in the Kirkland nursing home when he was stricken.  He succumbed on 1 March 2020.

Obituary - James Douglas Lambrecht, MD

Doug should not be remembered as an early American casuality of COVID-19 for he was more than that.  Beyond his role as a father and his position as an emergency medicine doctor, both important and significant roles, he was a great scouter and a fine friend.  Doug was an Assistant Scoutmaster for BSA Troop 573 in Woodinville WA.  I do not know for how long, probably a solid 10 years and likely longer.  He was not a scouter in name, but a supporter and active scout.  Two of his sons were active scouts and Doug was never far behind.  I recall many outings and events with Doug, but the one I recall best is a backpacking trip on the Pacific coast near Lake Ozette WA.  That trip was not monumental, but Doug was there, he was present, and he was in it for the scouts.  He knew when to help and when to observe.  He knew when a few word were right and when silence was best.  He was a rock of good humor against which problems could splash and then fade away.  Doug walked and talked the Scout Law.