The Russian 2022 Invasion of Ukraine continues and we have reached the two-week point. I just watched a video of a YouTuber that I generally follow. He left Ukraine shortly after the 2022 Invasion started and made his way to Budapest, Hungary. His name is Johnny and his recent video is here. It makes me think a bit more about Putin's motives, options, intentions, and the invasion.
The people who expect this Invasion to be over soon are severely optimistic. The good-hearted people of Hungary and Poland are responding with great generosity. They are accepting a large influx of displaced peoples and making arrangements for the people to have a place to stay and food to eat. Other countries are constructing special immigration conditions and visas to allow the displaced people to move out across Europe. This is great now, but how long can it last? How long can someone in Budapest have a small family living in a spare bedroom? How long can the collective countries provide a river of food and supplies for this guests? Even the good-hearted have their limits.
And what about the displaced peoples themselves? They do not want hand-outs. They do not want a life of living in the corners of someone else's life. They want to live and work in a society. They want to build a better society. All the goodwill and handouts in the world will not give them purpose. In the West, we need to understand this situation. We need to understand Putin's intentions and what will make him stop.
As I mentioned a couple days ago, he may leave this mortal coil. That would bring a quick end, but then we need to think about Putin's successor. Will that person be better? Or worse? Lenin was a monster, but Stalin was worse. Gorbachev and Yeltsin showed some degree of improvement, but then Putin came along. This is a great, looming question.
It seems reasonable to predict that Putin will continue to prosecute his war. It may not take the few days that he expected but the sunk cost and the consequences of failure will keep Putin and the entire Russian military moving forward. If the military machine stalls, we could have a stalemate, a front that lives in-place. That is the lesson of Crimea. Putin could be happy with that outcome for another decade. He would declare the de-Nazification suffessful and complete, and everyting would settle down along some line of battle. The (generally) eastern portions of Ukraine would gradually become fully integrated into Russia; the (generally) western portions of Ukraine would assemble some sense of normalcy and resume a shadowed existence. The shadow hanging over them would be the next Putin invasion, somewhere around 2027-2030 to grab the next bit of Ukraine. This is something like the Korea model, now approaching 70 years old. If some sort of guerilla war continues, it would be more like the Viet Nam model.
It seems highly unlikely that the Russian army would do any meaningful sort of retreat. Such would be predicated on the end of Putin, either via the mortal coil departure, via some internal struggle or replacement by parties in Moscow, or a combination of the two. Putin can stop the Russian Army but he cannot retreat.
All of the above could take years to resolve, during which the fighting will continue with some degree of intensity. As the weather gets better in the summer and fall, the fighting will probably get more intense, while the winter cold and spring rains will probably reduce the level of fighting, although not stopping it.
During those years, what will the western nations do? And what will China do? It seems that China will exploit the situation, leverage its position as the only large trading partner remaining wiht Russia. The US can do little about this because of the massive Chinese Manufacturing System. If China stops or merely slows the manufacture of electronics, clothing, appliances, and component parts necessary for comfort in the western countries, there will be sudden changes in support. The price of gasoline (petrol) has gone up in the last two weeks and people (Fox News) are already questioning why we are against Russia in Ukraine. (For the record, Tucker Carlson of FOX News on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Laura Ingraham is not far from Carlson.) So China will continue to support Russia and keep something resembling an economy alive in Russia. This will be done in some manner beneficial to China, but it shall be done.
The good news is that the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be moving to the chronic stage and will kill fewer people. The COVID-19 story of the last two years is (sort of) going away. The bad news is that Putin invaded Ukraine and it will take years to recover.
No comments:
Post a Comment