Thursday, November 14, 2024

DOGE 2025 - 14 November 2024

Donald Trump has announced his new initiative for governmental efficiency.  This is a derivative idea pushed most famously by Elon Musk.

DOGE, the proposed Department of Government Efficiency, is an Office because only Congress can create or destroy a Department.  So it is really OOGE, and I am not sure how to pronounce that.  Ooze?  Seems apt.

It  has “Efficiency” right there in the name, but it has two co-chairs?  Two?  This is "efficiency"?

The two leaders are to be Vivek Ramaswamy ("failed presidential candidate") and Elon Musk ("purchaser of politicians").  I am gonna love seeing Vivek and Elon share leadership.  Pass me the popcorn.  


Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Medicare Part D choices for 2025 - 13 November 2024

I reviewed the new (2025) Medicare Plan D drug plan options a month or so ago, when the information first came out, and I just re-reviewed them all.  In 2024, I have a plan that is $3.30/month and the drugs I use are at no additional cost.  For 2025, that same plan goes up to $36/month and the drugs now come at an added cost for an annualized total of $908.  Yes, the plan goes from about $50/year to $900/year.  Naturally, I looked at other plans.  

I found two that are zero cost.  Yep, $0/month and $0 for the drugs.  It is worthy of onte that one has Costco as the preferred pharmacy and the other has Bartell as the preferred pharmacy; the drugs have cost at the non-preferred pharmacy, and both offer no-cost drugs by mail.  Finally, the third cheapest option is also $0/month but the drugs cost about $50/yr.  

I conclude that I am the product.

If the plan costs nothing and the drugs cost nothing, then my information is being collected to be bought and sold.  Yeah, there is HIPAA "to protect me" but I am sure they have clever ways to, uh, comply while still selling information.  

The nine plans available to me run between $0 and $2150 (annualized).  At that top end, there is no deductible, but it is about $600 more expensive than the next most expensive - and the deductible is about $600.  Strange, that.

I assume I will spend the rest of my life on this merry-go-round, chasing low-cost options each year, and getting "collected" by various insurance companies each time I switch.



Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Taking stock of the 2024 election - 12 November 2024

Today, Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo wrote an article entitled Backchannel Vol. 5 No. 26: The Aftermath of Competitive Hyperbole.  In it, he writes:

Democrats are not well-served by a meltdown, a spiral of demoralization that zaps their energy to counter the Trump administration and bounce back in two and four years. Understanding what happened is important because it impacts the future.

He is right.  The Competitive Hyperbole is the story of the hour/day/week hogging the headlines and the airwaves but it illuminates nothing.  There was no "Trump mandate" and it was a close race, even with the House and Senate races assessed.  Trump has a thin, thin margin.  Democrats need to point out that There Is No Trump Mandate forcefully & repeatedly.  The so-called analysis is just the same old players playing their same old talking points to their same old audiences.  Bernie sees it as a failure to court the middle class because, of course he does.  Others see it as a failure to boldly support Palestine because, of course they do.  And so on.  The fact is that Kamala is the second woman presidential candidate to lose and was only the second non-white candidate to run.  We are talking about simple sexism and racism in the electorate.  Exactly how we fix it - well, I have opinions, but the important thing is to abandon familiar, comfortable arguments and really understand what actually happened.  

I do not know who will rise to lead the Democrats.  Mr. Jeffries?  Ms. AOC?  I know it will not be Bernie or a Palestinian advocate, and it cannot be a "bipartisan" throwback.  I do know that Democrats must absorb the pain, stop the blame, unify the aim, and get back into the fight.



Sunday, June 23, 2024

Driving in France (Brittany, Normandy, & Vendee) - 23 June 2024

Driving in a foreign country can be intimidating.  As Americans, we tend to assume it is the same "over there" as it is "over here".  While this is generally true, there are some specific exceptions.  This list is based on my experience in 2020-2024 and should not be taken as legal advice.  I choose not to drive in Paris, so the rules and conventions may be different there.  These comments are not exhaustive and your mileage my vary.  Stay alert.

Metric.  Of course, all the units are metric - kilometers per hour (km/h, sometimes "clicks"), kilometers (km, sometimes "clicks"), and meters (m).  Speed limits are posted in km/h, usually a multiple of ten.  The gauges in the car are in the same units, so conversion is not required, but as an American, I like to think in terms of miles, so I take the value in km and drop the last digit, then multiple by six and round up to a multiple of five.  For example, 70 km/h becomes 7 * 6, giving 42 and rounding up to 45;  100 km/h becomes 10 * 6, giving 60 mph.  

Roundabouts.  In Boston, these are called rotaries but we call them roundabouts in the Pacific Northwest.  They are beloved structures in France (outside Paris) to the point that traffic lights are relatively rare and there are very few STOP signs.  On various errands, I would barely touch my brakes while covering 35 km because everything was a rotary rather than a STOP sign or traffic light.  There are two key tricks for rotaries - entry and exit.

Rotary entry is a merge process.  You wan to avoid stopping; instead, adjust your entry speed so that you fit into traffic.  In rush hour, this may not be possible and you will stop to wait for an entry, but mostly you will slow a bit to merge into the flowing traffic.  That is it - other drivers expect it and will be surprised (unpleasantly) should you stop.

Rotary exit can be confusing, so stay alert.  The first thing is to know which exit you want.  Larger rotaries will have five or more roads meeting, so you may want an exit other than a right angle (right, straight, left).  Some rotaries also have blocked exits (these do not count) or exits for special purposes like maintenance or parking lots (especially park-and-ride lots), and these do count.  When I say "count", your GPS (or navigator) should tell you which exit number you want.  For example, "second exit" is often the equivalent of straight through.  In another style, my wife and I would talk about "virtual left" meaning to take the exit around 270 degrees, which could be more or fewer than the third exit.  

While many rotaries are effectively a single lane, there are larger rotaries with two entrance, travel, and exit lanes and people will use all the lanes.  When you enter a rotary in a two-lane entry, keep to your lane:  right lane to the outer lane and left land to the center lane.  Be alert for someone traveling on your left who wants to exit - let them in.  It helps to signal your intentions - signal left to stay in the rotary and signal right when you are going to take the next exit.  

Tolls.  The major roads, Routes National or N-number roads, will likely have tolls and some smaller roads may, too, as well as larger bridges.  France has an automated toll system and your rental car my have a transponder; check with the agent when you pick up the car.  Cars with transponders can use the lanes marked for "e" or "EZ", typically to the left side of the block of toll booths.  If you want to pay in cash, the marked lanes are typically to the right.  The lanes in the middle are for payment by credit cards, and these allow "contactless" (aka "tap") if your card is capable.  Sometimes there are special lanes to the far right for trucks, so stay out of their way. My experience is that the contactless lanes happily accept Apple Pay and Google Wallet, either from a phone or from a smartwatch.  

Toll tickets.  As you enter a Route National, you will probably pick up a ticket at the booth.  As you exit the Route National, you will insert the ticket, then present payment (e.g., contactless card).  In another style, you will simply pay a fixed toll at a toll booth, but there will still be EZ, card, and cash lanes.

Speed limits.  Speed limits on the N-number roads tend to be 130 km/h, but this varies and can be as low as 100-110 km/h, and the exit speeds are closer to 70 km/h.  Speed limits on mid-sized roads are usually around 100 km/h and speed limits on the smaller roads are 80-90 km/h, varying.  As the mid and smaller roads enter towns, the speed limits will drop quickly to about 70 km/h and then down to 50 km/h.  These are typical speed limits and you should always check the posted speeds.  

Speeding tickets.  Many towns are equipped with traffic cameras that will record your license plate number and speed.  If you are speeding, the Republique Francaise will send you an Avis de Contravention - a speeding ticket.  The report (ticket) will tell you when and where the contravention happened and what the infraction was, such as "exces de vitesse" for speeding, a parking ticket, etc.  This will cost you a fine, conveniently payable by credit card.  The rental car company will also send you a letter explaining that they were contacted by the government to ask for information about the registered driver(s).  The rental car will charge you for this contact using the payment information on record (fees vary, but expect euro 40-50).  There are many variables to determine the cost of a speeding ticket, but expect euro 45-180, depending on how quickly you pay and how fast you were going.

So there you have some thoughts on driving in France.



Thursday, June 20, 2024

Jury Duty Across the Years - 20 June 2024

I have had several calls for jury duty in multiple states across multiple decades.  My early jury duty was in Chicago in the 1980s, then there was a long blank period in Massachusetts, and then three calls to jury duty in Washington.  Each of them contributed to my understanding of the legal process in the United States.  Although not entirely pleasant, I strongly recommend that everyone serve on a jury duty at some time in their life, earlier if possible.

The first jury duty call was in metro Chicago.  Chicago had a one-day-one trial jury process.  We reported for jury duty for one day, and if not empaneled onto a jury, we were done.  If we were empaneled, we served for one case.  

For this case, we waited in a pool for the morning and were released for lunch.  When we came back from lunch at 1pm, we were told that the defendant had accepted a plea deal and we were dismissed.  Evidently this is common.

The second jury duty call in Chicago was for a drug case.  I was put on a jury for a drug case.  A defendant had been found in a basement apartment, fleeing from police officers.  An officer came into the room to see the defendant sitting on the bed in skimpy clothing (I no longer recall the details, but "underwear and a man's shirt" would not be too far off).  Searching the room, the officer found a syringe in the wastebasket.  The officer arrested the woman on drug possession charges.   A lab report (submitted in evidence) later confirmed the presence of an illicit drug on the syringe.  The officer told the jury that the defendant must have been holding the syringe when the cops burst in, she dashed to her bedroom and tossed the syringe into the wastebasket.

Complication #1: The officer did not see the syringe or any drugs in the hands of the defendant, and she testified that the drugs belonged to her boyfriend (not present at the time of the arrest).  

Complication #2: her fingerprints were not on the syringe.

If convicted, this would be the third drug conviction for the defendant and she would be sent to prison for a long, long time (10 years or longer).

The officer told the jury that a group of officers were responding to a report of domestic violence when they came across the defendant.  When she ran, they chased her into the basement apartment.

Complication #3:  The defendant did not live at the address associated with the domestic violence.  The police were at the wrong address. 

Given a choice of conviction or release, the jury did not find enough evidence of a crime by the defendant.  

The next jury duty call was in Massachusetts.  The MA rules were for two-days-one-trial and my first day in the pool was uneventful.  I was selected on the second day for a workman's compensation case.  A man working as a plasterer was standing on a moveable scaffold when it collapsed, injuring the man.  He had been studying to become a mycologist, and the injury meant that he was incapable of performing the physical duties of raising mushrooms (hefting heavy bags of compost, etc.).  The man was suing the scaffold company for lost wages and lost opportunities.  Each side brought in witnesses and experts to present their story.  The dueling experts were professors, one explaining that the caster would fail in a way to cause the injury, and the other explaining that the caster failing could not happen without damage to the caster (therefore the scaffolding company would not be liable and someone else would be).  Everyone agreed that the accident happened and that a failed caster contributed; the question was the cause and timing of the failure of the caster and the answer would point to a different party.  Some miscellaneous facts that I recall:  the scaffold was discarded after it failed and the claimant had to return to the worksite to pull it from the on-site garbage pile; there was no chain of custody of the scaffold;  and the casters were to be inspected each day before use by the workmen before they used the scaffold.  

It was a hung jury split down the middle, six and six.  We were told after the trial that the injured workman had already been covered for medical expenses under Workman's Compensation (fund, laws).  We were not told this and only presented with a question of liability and the damages (if any) were to be based on liability and lost income.  This was also the second trial; the first trial had also resulted in a hung jury.  I do not know if the workman went for a third trial.  

I was called for jury duty since then, but my wife received the call and explained that I had just served for a week of jury duty withn the year, and the clerk marked by records so that I would be exempted for two years.  That was twenty years ago and I have not been called since.

As citizens, we have few formal duties.  Follow the laws, vote, and serve on juries.  Service on a jury gives deep and personal insight into how the laws are applied and how citizens are deprived of their liberty.  We should each welcome jury duty.



Thursday, May 30, 2024

Celebration and Sorrow - 30 May 2024

Today is a day of celebration.  A citizen perpetrated a crime and has received a conviction from a jury of his peers deciding unanimously.  

The sorrow is that said citizen was able to manipulate the system to avoid responsibility and evade accountability while rising to the highest office in the land.  

Yet, somehow, his machinations are not yet over.  It is not a simple matter of remanding him to authorities to be held until sentencing; in fact, he roams free.  The battle continues.

CNN reports Trump Guilty on All 34 Felony Counts 



Wednesday, April 24, 2024

I Became a Boomer Today - 24 April 2024

An interaction on social media (SM) today convinced me that I am no longer a person but am a boomer.  Sadness ensues.

It started this morning when a well-known SM personality opined that YouTube had done her a disservice.  To quote her question, "did the algorithm just fuck me over?"  Seeing someone somewhere on the Internet making a mistake, I was compelled to query in response,

“Never assign to malice what mere incompetence can explain” - does that apply here?

The SM personality replied,

I didn't suggest malice. I just said it's weird.

Confused by this, I replied,

I apologize if I am being argumentative, but your wording is stronger: “but did the algorithm just fuck me over?” I do not think I am being thin-skinned or puritanical. 

But back to my point, I suggest it is an inept programmer acting under deadlines rather than a focused attempt to fuck over or protect any individual. I have no data to support this beyond anecdotal experience.

The SM personality replied,

when comments are off, the algorithm stops recommending your video and therefore views go down. calm down, you're being weird

I was puzzled by this because I was not being weird or un-calm, I was quoting the SM personality.  My confusion was magnified when someone else replied to me,

it sounds like you are being both thin-skinned and puritanical tbf

that's a perfectly reasonable thing to say and not imply malice

So, the word "fuck" is now an ordinary verb and polite conversational manners are passe.  Thus, I have become a boomer.  I did think of several clever responses but I decided that they would fall on deaf ears and so I just walked away from the stupidity.



Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Working Remotely has Problems - 23 April 2024

WFH, or Work From Home, has gotten a lot of support since COVID-19 started to ravage the US and the world.   When some people decided to move their homes greater and greater distances from the traditional offices, the WFH concept was been expanded to include working remotely and a cottage industry has grown up to advocate for remote work.  In the articles I have seen the analysis is shallow and focuses on two things, the benefits to the employee (reduced or eliminated commute costs, etc.) and the benefit to the corporation being mainly reduced rent for offices that are not longer needed.  But we need to get real.  

Working remotely has problems, big problems.

In a recent news article in The Stranger, a Seattle popular newspaper, a report was posted:

Texas Attorney General drops challenge of Seattle hospital: In December, a Seattle hospital filed a lawsuit against Texas AG Ken Paxton after he demanded the hospital turn over the medical records of Texas children who receive gender-affirming care from the hospital. Paxton dropped the request for medical records as part of a settlement agreement with the hospital, according to KOMO. However, the hospital also had to drop its registration to do business in Texas. That won't affect children receiving gender-affirming care, but it may be annoying to the hospital employees who live in Texas and work remotely for the hospital. [23 April 2024 as reported by Ashley Nerbovig]

To recap briefly, the Texas AG (Attorney General) had demanded medical records from a Seattle hospital based on Texas state laws and the hospital sued the Texas AG (I do not know why they did not simply ignore the demand, but that is not material.)  They settled the suit and mutually agreed to drop everything.

As part of the agreement, the hospital cancelled its registration to do business in Texas.  I do not know what else a Seattle hospital might do in Texas, but the Seattle hospital can no longer have employees based in Texas because the hospital no longer is registered in Texas.  I deduce from the report that the hospital must have have employees in Texas or plans to have employees in Texas.  A company (or hospital) that has employees in a state must usually pay taxes and provide benefits for the employees to that state, and that implies some sort of registration process so that the state knows who the employer is and what reports and payments are required.  Texas has no state income tax but they do have unemployment tax and other state-specific fees and taxes, therefore the hospital  must register as an employer if they have anyone working in Texas.  (Attendance at conferences, business meetings, and training events and other business travel are usually exempted from the definition of "working".)  

As a result of this decision to drop the case and drop registration, the Seattle hospital must move or terminate all employees in Texas because they no longer have a business registration there.

This is a consequence of working remotely that most employees do not see and most analysts do not include.  If a complay has even one employee in a state, they must be prepared to withhold taxes, pay taxes, and pay for benefits in that state.  If a company has health insurance for employees but the insurance company is not registered to work in a particular state, the company cannot offer benefits in that state without a special contract with another insurance company(s).  This is a burden that most companies would take only reluctanctly (read that: only for VPs or perhaps Directors, but not for regular employees below an executive level).  The situation is made yet more complex and expensive is "remote" includes other countries.

At the end of the day, this requirement for registration in every state is one of the key reasons that working remotely is a bad idea.



Friday, April 19, 2024

Document Destruction - 19 April 2024

I still get a lot of paper documents and statements in the postal mail.  I know enough about email that I do not trust it for reliable delivery, but that is a topic for another screed.  I get regular notices of attempts to "recover" my password that I did not request.  Security - actually computer insecurity - is a real thing.  With all the hacks and breaks in the world, it is still important to clean up your paper trail.  Here is my suggestion.

I start with a paper shredder.  I used to use a strip shredder that produce long strips from the sheets fed into the top.  This was OK, but newer shredders are "crosscut", and they produce "chips" of paper that are far harder to reassemble.  Go for a crosscut shredder; strip shredders are obsolete.

Many years ago, it was sufficient to simply dispose of the shredded strips in the garbage, but this is easily improved (in a defensive cannot-reassemble sense).  I started mixing the shredded paper in with the used cat litter.  I would dump the cat litter into paper grocery bags and put the shredded paper on the bottom.  This may not stop someone from reassembling your shreds, but it will certainly make it unpleasant for them.  If you lack cat litter, coffee grounds will work well as a mixer.

This worked well for a long time, but I have two further improvements to offer.

As a base protocol, I shred anything that has personal information on it, especially anything that has an account number or other ID on it.  However, this helps a reassembler because they have some guarantee that they are spending their time and effort to assemble something of value.  They can even focus on areas and shredded bits that have, say, numbers in the hope that the number will prove to be the account number.  Do not give them any hints.  A simple and effective improvement is to shred a lot of stuff that is generic or not sensitive.  First, shred the envelopes that the documents come in.  Second, shred all the supplementary informaton in the envelope - privacy notices, advertisements, and the like - after you take it out of the envelope.  The shredders tend to clump pages as part of the shredding process, so take things out of the envelopes to disassociate them.  Expanding this, shred nonsensitive information:  junk mail.  This increases the bulk, making it harder to find the good stuff.  Further, it confuses the reassembler because they have far more material to select from.  

The last improvement is probably the most effective.  Compost the shreddings.  I mix my shreds with coffee grounds.  Use your home grounds and augment the bulk with used coffee grounds in bulk from your local coffee shop.  They will be happy to provide you with the day's bag of used grounds.  The used grounds may contain a few paper filters, but they will break down, too.  Mixing shredded paper and coffee grounds in roughly equal parts is a good mix for your compost pile.  I think the coffee grounds qualify as "green" and the paper as "brown".  If you have read much about compost piles, you will recognize that green-brown blending accelerates the compost action.  Be sure to moisten everything to get the pile cooking.  In the short term, the wetted coffee will stain all the paper brown, making it much less legible.  In the long term, you will have dirt for your garden, dirt that cannot be reassembled into anything.  You can add any vegetable or yard trimmings that you wish to your compost.  There are particular warnings against using certain weeds in home composting, and I would strongly recommend against using animal waste of any kind in a garden compost pile - no dairy, no meats, no bones, no grease, and no animal waste.

In summary, the shredded paper and coffee grounds will create a soil amendment that is totally secure and cannot be reassembled or read.  Even the composting process obliterates much of the information on the shreds, so this is pretty good security for a homeowner.

As usual with any security process or advice, adapt this to your particular circumstances.  If you oversee a lot of wealth, this advice may not be sufficient for you.  If you oversee nominal or minimal wealth, this is a low-cost, low-effort way to protect your personal information.



Friday, April 12, 2024

Does this make me antisocial? - 12 April 2024

The Kardashians have been on TV for 20 years or so, and I have never seen a single episode.  I was reminded of this by the death yesterday of O.J. Simpson, the footballer-criminal.  The Simpsons has been on TV for over 20 years.  I have seen two or three episodes, maybe.  The Apprentice was on TV for a decade and I have seen zero episodes.  Shows like The Voice, America's Got Talent, the various dating shows, the Survivor series of series, and American Gladiator - I have seen none of these.  Not a single episode.  

Does this make me antisocial?




Monday, April 08, 2024

Eclipsis Ipsa - 8 April 2024

Astronomy is the Sport of Optimists in the PNW

Twas a bit of a disappointment in Seattle today.  It was supposed to be the day of the great North American Eclipse of 2024, but we had two things going against us.  First, it was overcast and raining.  I know this comes as a surprise given the general climate in Seattle, but we had some sunny days this past week and will have a few more this coming week, but not today.  Second, we were only in the 10-20% band, so the eclipse, had it been visible, would have been a small notch in the bottom of the disc of the sun.  Not a terribly memorable visual and not much of an impact on the overall solar illumination.

As a small consolation, have some chocolate-covered gummi bears.


Saturday, April 06, 2024

Eclipse Mania 2024 - 06 April 2024

A solar eclipse will scan across the United States on Monday, 8 April 2024.  In a long stripe running from Texas to Maine, the ground track of totality will be a midda thrill for millions of viewers.  Some of them have questions and the Internet, in its infinite wisdom has answers, many of which are wrong.  The following are real questions with real answers.

Will it be safe to look directly at the sun?  No.  

It is never safe to look directly at the sun.  Use certified eclipse glasses, not just cheap drugstore/internet glasses and not welder's glass, but filter-glasses that have been certified by a real agency.

Will my cell phone service be reduced or curtailed?  No.

The solar eclipse involves the sun, the moon, and visible light.  There is nothing that relates the sun, the moon, or visible light to cell phones.  None.  Carry on.

Will there be a Zombie Apocalypse triggered by the eclipse?  No.

The last solar eclipse did not trigger one and this one will not, either.  No eclipse has ever triggered Zombies.  Ever.

 Will there be the Rapture?  No.

No eclipse has ever triggered the Rapture and this one will not.

Will there be earthquakes, rain of blood, locusts, or other natural disasters?  No.

There is always a chance of earthquakes, volcanos, and other natural disasters, but if they happen, it will have nothing to do with the solar eclipse.

Will animals behave strangely during the totality?  Yes.

Birds will go silent and other animals may show signs of sleepiness.  This is well-documented from previous solar eclipses.  Nature and life will return to normal as the local eclipse ends.

If you are in the path of totality - congratulations!  Enjoy the show.  Protect your eyes.  If you are outside the path of totality, maybe next time.  Maybe I will see you in 2044 or 2045!






Wednesday, April 03, 2024

AI Is Going Great, Part 1 - 3 April 2024

A couple years ago, Amazon.com announced automated stores in which customers pick up items, put them into a cart or bag, and then "just walk out".  A cloud of cameras and scanners would watch the selection process of each customer and automatically total up the bill.  AI would drive the whole systems.  Well, not so much.  It turns out the whole system was driven by 1000 people in India paid to watch the cameras and create the receipts for "automatic" checkout.

According to a report today, 

Amazon ditches "Just Walk Out" tech: The futuristic cornerstone of Amazon's grocery store experience was a lie. Amazon advertised this experience where a completely automated process tracked your moves in the store, watching what you grabbed and tallying your bill as you "just walked out," nullifying the need for any pesky cashiers. However, it turns out the process wasn't automated at all. Instead, over 1,000 people in India were watching the cameras and assembling bills for whatever you put in your basket. 

https://gizmodo.com/amazon-reportedly-ditches-just-walk-out-grocery-stores-1851381116



Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Ratcheting as a Management Technique - 26 March 2024

I have experienced ratcheting, a subtle management technique that is easy to apply and hard to detect.  I do not recommend it - in fact, I abhor it - but there are some defenses.

Ratcheting is a simple method of management in which a manager continually asks for more and more work in less and less work time, often sliding into uncompensated overtime.  The most obvous technique is to simply assign more work or more complex work while holding a deadline steady.  I will not be able to cover all techniques with examples, but some examples will help explain the practice of ratcheting.

"Hey, about that report on router efficiency - can you include some analysis of the file servers, too?"  

"I was thinking about that analysis of router efficiency.  Can you also apply some regression analysis and give us some idea of the problems caused by each primary traffic type?"

Alternatively, the manager can pull in the expected delivery date.

"The meeting to present the report on router usage got pulled up to Thursday, so be sure you are ready for that."

"I have a preparatory meeting with the VP, so I need your preliminary numbers by noon, tomorrow.  Keep working on the final numbers, but be sure there are no surprises in the interim."

The obvious defense is to agree and then ask what other work can be dropped or delayed to compensate.  The ratcheting response is to minimize the work or the disruption.

"It is just an Excel sheet, so you should be able to pull in that deadline."

"The changes are pretty simple and the text editor / word processor program should handle most of the work."

The offered techniques for work simplification usually do not affect the workload.  The "automated work" is often just a fraction of the total workload.  In my work, the bulk of my energy was usually spent in collecting and cleaning the input data while the analysis was pretty mechanical;  filling in the gaps required thought and not just typing.

Finally, the ratcheting causes some sort of breakdown.  The employee explodes or rejects the new work and the manager backs down.  A little.  This is when the ratcheting technique makes clear its value.  Now that the employee is used to the higher level of work, the manager pauses a little bit, and then resumes the ratcheting when the employee has calmed down.  The employee gets a day or two of relief and then the ratcheting starts all over again.

Complementing the ratcheting technique is the continuous offer of benefits or a threat of consequences.  The manager promises the extra effort will "help your career" in some non-specific way that never quite materializes, or lack of the extra effort will put the employee behind the curve of the rest of the team and their bonus or promotion prospects will suffer.  This latter has then benefit that the employee feels they are disappointing the rest of the team and so the extra work is required as a matter of group loyalty.  None of this is true and none of it ever happens, but the employee is now acclimated to the new work level.

If you feel stressed at work, take a moment to look for evidence of ratcheting.



Friday, March 22, 2024

Career Notes #5: How To Get Promoted, Not - 22 March 2024

It appears to be common wisdom in the technology business that the way to get promoted is:

As one of my managers used to say:

If you want to get a promotion, you don’t need to complete 1,000 tasks; you need to figure out how to eliminate the need for the 1,000 tasks. 

This particular example of the common wisdom comes from the SeattleDataGuy via his newsletter on Substack.   

This is balderdash.  Naive, well intended, perhaps even a closely held belief, but balderdash.  Let us take a look at this in more detail.

If you hold a task-driven job, it may be the right path to eliminate those 1000 tasks on your way to promotion, but a task-driven job is pretty low on the totem pole, so this might get you promoted among the minnows and guppies but it will not help your career much.  Note that I am not saying that it is a  bad idea to eliminate tasks, but it is far from sufficient for promotion and it is not necessary.

If you do hold a mundane, task-bound job, then automating tasks is a good idea, but it becomes part of a promotion case when you share the automating scripts with your colleagues.  You  may get a bonus or an award if you automate your work, but a promotion will be tied to your ability to improve the group, not just yourself.  We can generalize this.

To get promoted, think about the responsibilities that your boss has and help solve them.  Making the group more productive is clearly a responsibility of your boss while your own productivity is your own responsibility -- therefore, creating and sharing improvements is the proper path forward.  Creating improvements is necessary but not sufficient.  You must also make sure that your boss (and collegues) know the source of the improvements is you.  This does not have to be a billboard or major production on a stage, but you do need to be sure that your contributions and solutions are tied to the improvements.  Think of it as "reporting the news".  

Reporting The News is a key concept.  Many people are concerned that they will be seen as braggards or that they will be confused with the people that steal the work of others.  Nope.  I am not suggesting braggadocio, but rather a simple news reporting function.  Put it in your status report (you do not write a status report?  start now!).  Announce the improvement at your next group meeting ("I have found a simpler/faster way to perform this task") and share it with your team.  Put it in the source tree for your project(s).  

To summarize, automate, eliminate, or streamline tasks that are measured by your organization, and report the news of your improvements to your boss and colleagues.  Do not just do 1000 things, even if they are important to you; study the larger picture.




Saturday, March 16, 2024

Web3 Is Going Great (Not) - 16 March 2024

In a move that surprised no one, Starbucks is shutting down its NFTs.

OK, to be precise, Starbucks is passing the Starbucks Stamps NFT Program over to a third-party and washing their hands.  The Starbucks Stamps NFT Program started out as a way to reward regular customers of Starbucks, but it has languished and finally gotten to the point that it is more trouble than it is worth.  So Starbucks is dumping it.

At one point, NFTs, blockchain, and blockchain-contracts were the triplet powerhouses that were going to drive Web3 into the future.  NFTs are failing left and right, blockchains and crypto-vendors are rug-pulling weekly, and e-contracts are often used to steal from crypto-vendors, so the future of Web3 is looking a little disorganized.  #NoSurprise

Reference - Engadget article, 16 March 2024 , subtitled The program ends on March 31 and its NFT marketplace will be shifted over to Nifty.



Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Washington 2024 Presidential Primary Results - 13 March 2024

Yesterday was the Washington Presidential Primary for Republicans and Democrats.  Washington does not require a voter to be registered in a particular party, but the voter does need to declare a preference or an affiliation for the election.  Once declared, a particular voter cannot vote for candidates from the other parties.  I did not see an Independent or an Other option, however there were protest votes.  On the Democratic side, there was a campaign underway for people to vote Uncommitted, and on the Republican side, there is a continuing effort for Nikki Haley even though she has formally withdrawn from the primary contest.  The results were that 85.6% of Democratic primary votes went to Biden while 7.5% of ballots went to uncommitted delegates, leaving 6.9% in some other category.  On the Republican side, Trump picked up 74% of votes, Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race but was still on the ballot, is pulling 22%, and the remainder were scattered for Ron DeSantis (also dropped) and some miscellaneous categories.  Some of Haley's 22% represents cross-over Democrats doing protest votes, but we cannot determine how many.  

The uncommitted-as-protest group will claim victory based on the 7.5%, however the significance of the Uncommitted vote is unclear.  The 7.5% participation is a small number of the whole and no one knows what it would have been without the protest vote.  Therefore the other side (who?) can also declare victory.  In the end, the uncommitted-as-protest campaign was much sound and fury signifying nothing.

As in the last decade, the vote was primarily by mail with scattered drop boxes usually located near libraries, post offices, and the like.   I have not heard any reports of irregularities.  

As of "Super Tuesday", Trump and Biden have clinched the required number of delegates to secure their nominations.  For all intents and purposes, the Presidential campaign season has begun.

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Washington 2024 Primary Election Day - 12 March 2024

Today is the Washington primary election day and The Stranger, a local progressive newspaper, is recommending that Democrats vote for Uncommitted.  I have thoughts.

Vote for Uncommitted in the Dem primary? That has got to be the most mealy-mouthed idea I have heard since Nader was running. "Uncommitted sends a message" because of Gaza? Because of student loans? Because of inflation? Because your milk turned sour before the sell-by date? A clear message! NOT!

You could instead write a letter to the White House and your congresscritters that explicitly and clearly expresses your views. And how could The Stranger imply that TFG is even remotely acceptable?

You don't tug on Superman's cape,

You don't spit into the wind,

You don't vote Uncommitted on the Dem ballot,

And you don't give TFG a win.

Monday, March 11, 2024

Disasters Declared On This Day - 11 March 2024

The Ides of March may be being overtaken by 11 March.  On this day in 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, and on this day in 2011, the Tohoku earthquake broke the Fukushima nuclear power plant.  

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Sad Tesla News - 10 March 2024

We start today with a tragedy.  According to a news report in The New York Post, "Angela Chao, the billionaire former CEO of dry bulk shipping giant Foremost Group, tragically died at the age of 50 on Feb. 10 after accidentally backing her car into the pond while making a three-point turn." If that name does not ring a bell, note that Angela Chao’s sister, Elaine Chao, is married to Senator Mitch McConnell and served as Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Secretary of Transportation in President Donald Trump’s administration.  Mitch recently retired as Minority Leader (R) in the US Senate.

Angela Chao was hosting some friends on a ranch in Texas and wanted to return to the main ranchhouse at the end of the evening.  As it was cool, she decided to drive her Tesla rather than walk the four minutes from the guest houses to the main house.  At some point along the way, she backed her car into a pond where the car sank.  

The tragedy is multiplied by the design of the Tesla.  Rather than mechanical door handles, the main doors are opened electronically with a button.  Obviously, this is not a great design for an electric car sinking in a pond (loss of power).  There is an emergency mechanical door latch, but from the descriptions, it seems that it is hard to find, especially when sinking into a pond.  Chao was trapped inside the sinking car, unable to get out.  She had enough air in the car to be able to use her cell phone to call friends, but no one was able to help in time.

Many of the prior deaths in Tesla accidents have involved fire, but this is the first to involve water.

Condolences to the Chao family.

Reference: https://nypost.com/2024/03/09/us-news/angela-chao-made-panicked-call-before-dying-in-completely-submerged-tesla-on-texas-ranch/ 


Monday, March 04, 2024

The iPhone is the new transistor - 4 March 2024

Human history is a series of quiet periods interspersed with revolutions.  So, too, science is a series of quiet periods interspersed with revolutions.  In the 1947, the invention of the transistor changed the world and in 2007, the iPhone smart phone changed the world.  It took a while for the transistor to go from laboratory curiosity to common use, but the iPhone moved into common use more quickly.  More recently, people have thought virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), bitcoin (BTC), blockchain, and artificial intelligence (AI, LLM) would be the next revolutionary step.  AI may yet change the world, but the others are racing for the dust heap of history.

Some would claim that the Internet, the World Wide Web (WWW), or computing have changed history, and these have left their marks on life, but nothing has become as pervasive and as impactful as the smart phone.  The Internet, the WWW, and computing have contributed to the march of the smart phone, but so have many other technologies such as NFT, Bluetooth, and Wifi, but the smart phone is the agent of change.

In my smart phone, I can carry my wallet (except for cash, and even Venmo would object to that exception), my keys, my identification, my theater tickets, my shopping list, my maps, and the only things I need carry now are a pocket knife and a handkerchief.  Most people do not even carry handkerchiefs anymore.  And all this fits in one pocket.

We do not always recognize the revolution when it starts; in fact, we rarely do.  Transistors were big, chunky things with poor gain (a measure of transistor quality).  Horseless carriages were hard to start and broke down easily - and they needed roads to get somewhere.  Steam trains were noisy and smelly, too.  Medicine was glorified speculation until germ theory.  

The transistor continues to change our modern world, but the smart phone has surpassed it.