Thursday, September 08, 2022
Charles III seems an ill-advised choice for a name - 8 September 2022
Sunday, August 14, 2022
Roll, do not brush - 14 August 2022
I also learned why being generous can sometimes leave one in a bit of a pickle. During the construction class, the instructor suggested that people share epoxy bottles so as to reduce the number of epoxy stations that were needed. I volunteered to let my adjacent colleague draw from my bottles. The kayak kit comes with a gallon of epoxy, and that sounded nearly infinite to me. Well, I ran out today, and I am not yet done. I ordered a half-gallon kit, but it will take time to ship from the East coast, so my construction is temporarily stalled. I guess I can go back and sand down some of those drips.
Monday, August 08, 2022
Assembling a RAD Power RADmission bicycle from late May 2022 - 8 August 2022
U.S. Savings Bonds - 8 August 2022
These bonds are old and long past maturity. They would have matured before 2000, so the actual value of each bond today is far beyond the face value. I checked the internet and found a page that describes how to redeem the bonds.
Go to a bank.
Yep, there are a bunch of rules about paperwork that must be signed in the presence of a witness or a notary public.
Many banks will decline Savings Bonds.
We visited three (3) banks before finding one that would redeem Savings Bonds. One had certain designated offices that would redeem Bonds, but not the one we were standing in. Another simply did not handle Bonds. The third one would.
The banks require an account at the bank to redeem the Bonds.
We do not have an account at a local bank. Gave it up years ago to consolidate our finances into a high-service brokerage account. We have been doing all banking electronically for over a decade, but now we need a local account.
And there you have it. To redeem your U.S. Savings Bonds, you need to have a local bank account and process the paperwork in the presence of a notary public or a designed bank official.
I am now opening an account at a local bank so that I can redeem my ancient Savings Bonds.
Picture of a rabbit because, well, why not? Photo courtesy of Kathy Perko-Porter.Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Frontier is the Fastest Supercomputer on the Planet - 1 June 2022
Announced on Monday, 30 May 2022, the Frontier computer is the fastest computer on the planet, driven by AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct GPUs. I was a manager on the research projects that led to this success. The research ideas were turned into reality by a large team of dedicated engineers across a variety of disciplines. The AMD part of the story began in about 2014.
The AMD Research "FastForward" project on supercomputing started in about 2014 when the fastest computer in the world was 33.86 Petaflop/second (0.034 Exaflops/sec). That machine was the Tianhe-2, a supercomputer developed by China’s National University of Defense Technology. The Top500 list tracks the fastest computers, and in 2014, it looked like this. In the research project, our challenge was to invent a 1 Exaflop/sec (1000 Petaflops/sec) machine that used 20 Megawatts of power; at the time, it was predicted that such a machine would require nearly 100 MW if built using then-current technology. Further, it required so many chips that reliability calculations gave dismal predictions: the machine might not stay up long enough between failures to deliver the useful results. It took years of research from 2014 - plus the blood and sweat of hundreds of engineers across many disciplines - but the Cray branch of HPE delivered Frontier at 1.1 Exaflops/sec using 21 MW of power. News report here and here from The Next Platform.AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct GPUs (with AI/ML extensions) form the heart of the Oak Ridge Frontier machine. Once the system is tuned, it is expected to deliver 1.5 Exaflops/sec on the Hi-perf Linpack (HPL) benchmark.
When the FastForward (FF) project started, AMD had a declining number of systems on the Top500 list and I doubt any of them had AMD GPUs. The list was dominated by Intel (CPUs), IBM (CPUs), and Nvidia (GPUs). The Tianhe-2 (China) and Fugaku (Japan) were unusual. There were a lot of people, many within AMD, who thought AMD Research was wasting its time on supercomputers and high-performance computing. The AMD FF project received some outside funding from the US Government's Exascale Computing Project (ECP) that allowed us (AMD Research) a bit of independence to pursue the HPC (high-performance computing) research. The external funding even helped AMD Research survive and grow during times when the rest of AMD was shrinking and suffering. FastForward was followed by DesignForward, FF2, DF2, and finally PathForward (PF) funding from the ECP. This money did not cover the costs of the research, but it provided a reliable core of funding around which we could build a stable series of projects.Innovation was rampant in the FF work and continued into successive projects. The AMD Research group varied in size (it grew), but at one point, it represented about 1% of the AMD engineering population. At the peak, we produced about 40% of the AMD patents. Corporate-wide. The average Research member was 40x as productive as the average development engineer when comparing patents. With an increased emphasis on patents, the productivity of the rest of the corporation has risen and the Research group produces about 25% of the AMD patents.
There was a strong body of publications coming from AMD Research. The 50-odd researchers produced more peer-reviewed papers for major conferences than companies like Intel, Apple, Microsoft, and Google that had research staffs that were literally 10x the size. To be fair, this was not because AMD Research was smarter, but because AMD had a liberal publication policy. This publication policy changed dramatically in about 2018-2019. A publication went out (not from Research!) that revealed AMD confidential information, and so the valves were closed for a while. After internal debate, the valves were slightly reopened, but never to the same level of disclosure that had previously been allowed. Certain topics were not eligible for publication because the very topics were sensitive, and this caused significant internal friction. But such are the requirements of corporate research as distinguished from academic research. The AMD Research publication remains strong but is not as voluminous as the historical level.The next machine is to be El Capitan at Lawrence Livermore National Labs, and it is projected to deliver over 2 Exaflops with the next generation of AMD CPU and GPU silicon.Sunday, May 29, 2022
Personal Security Through Shredding - 29 May 2022
Security has been a research thread of mine for years. I have studied computer security since about 2005 (my first patent application was in early 2006). As a result, I often look at the security aspects of processes and procedures that I encounter in daily life, such as credit card fraud, financial fraud, and identify fraud. My personal security plays a common role in these thoughts. We get a lot of mail, "paper mail" via the US Postal Service, and while much of it is junk advertising, some of it is financial in content - credit card statements, credit card offers (usually unsolicited), bank and finance statements, and miscellaneous items like stock proxy solicitations. Quite simply, I shred all of these that I do not need to retain.
* credit card statements - keep for a year or two, then shred;
* credit card offers - use immediately or shred (usually: shred immediately);
* bank and finance statements - keep for tax purposes, then shred at end of life (seven years or so);
* stock proxy statements - exercise the vote, then shred; and
* stock proxy documents (e.g., annual reports, 10K statements) - these are too thick to shred, so they just go in the recycling as they are not personalized in any way.
My minimum rule is to shred anything that has an account number, personal information (name, address), or any identifying number (such as a ballot number). This absolutely includes credit card numbers, Medicare numbers, Social Security numbers, or any parts thereof.
The risk is that a Bad Actor can get access to the shredded material and use manual or automated processes to reassemble the documents to get information useful for fraud or identity theft. After a few years, I realized that by shredding sensitive documents, I was providing the Bad Actor a clue: anything shredded was valuable and everything else was not. Therefore, I started shredding the entire packet: envelope, explanator letters, and sensitive documents. Ths roughlly doubled the amount of shredded matter, making the reassembly puzzle more difficult to solve. I now go even farther and shred random bulk mail, intermixed with sensitive documents. This doubles again the reassembly puzzle. The Bad Actor will have to process a lot of magazine subscription requests to get the the useful stuff.
Finally, I put the shredded paper into the "yard waste" bin where it will be mixed with my banana peels and apple cores to make compost. And with all the apple cores and banana peels from my neighbors. Where this was not allowed, I would mix the shredded material with used cat litter; this may not destroy the little puzzle pieces, but the Bad Actor will have a very unpleasant time of reassembly.
Some materials do not compost: credit cards and backup CD-R disks come to mind. I do eventually shred these to make physical recovery difficult, but I demagnetize the strips on the credit cards becore I shred them. These bits of plastic get mixed with regular garbage.
Even electronic information can be hacked. As I write that, it seems pretty self-evident, but I have a specific transaftion type in mind. I will occasionally pay bills by sending a credit card number in an email message. I split the credit card information into (at least) two messages, each of which contains only part of the information. The first eight digits and the expiration date may go in the first message, and the final eight digits with the CVV code go in the second. The person on the receiving end need merely "glue" the bits of information together to effect the transaction. This splitting is not a lot of protection, but the Bad Actor will have to find and hack both messages to extract useful information.
For those who have fireplaces, another option is to burn the documents. However, one must be careful to thoroughly stir the ashes to break up the page structure of the documents, preventing reconstruction. I would also feed the pages into the fire a few at a time, as the center of a wad of pages may not reliably burn. Stirring would reveal unburned pages and allow for a second attempt at destruction. Once cool, dump the ashes with other garbage.
If you have confidential documents on computer media, the options change dramatically A good quality USB flash-drive could survive a fire. It may look pretty messy on the outside, but the electronic contents may work when in the hands of a suitable expert. If you are concerned about the contents of a USB drive or an SD/micro-SD card, smash them with a hammer and check that this produces small pieces and that the chips are damaged. The circuit board (usually green) may be recoverable if the chips are intact. If you are concerned about the contents of a disk drive or a "harddrive", you can either drill holes in it or dismantle it. Drill right through the metal shell, not just in the circuit board (often green). The disks rotate inside a vacuum or a special atmosphere (e.g., helium), so one hole is pretty safe, but drill all the way through the platters if you can. I take old disk drives to Boy Scout troops and let them disassemble the drives to learn how they work (an extension of the Computer Merit Badge). A destructive teenager can accomplish a lot with simple tools. The platters within modern disk drives are glass, so I recommend a good whack with a hammer. If you shake the disk and hear a rattling sound, you have hit it hard enough. For CDs, CD-Rs, DVDs, DVD-Rs, and BluRay disks, your best bet is to shred them. Sometimes it is sufficient to bend them in half (break them in half if you can), but extreme physical damage is the objective. Except under the most extreme techniques, the information in RAM (memory sticks) is lost within a few minutes of turning off the computer (typically seconds).As a special case, modern copiers have computers inside them - meaning that they have disk drives or other storage. If you surplus a copier, be sure that the data is wiped to your satisfaction by the copier technician.
In the end, no security scheme is perfect. A Bad Actor with sufficient motivation and technology can undo the simple actions, so be destructive. Your damage may convince the Bad Actor that it would be easier to steal data from someone else, and that would be success.
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Allergies and Hummingbirds - 11 May 2022
Thursday, April 28, 2022
Elon and Twitter - 28 April 2022
Island Time - 28 April 2022
Keats Island is located in Howe Sound, just north of Vancouver, BC. On the northern side of the island is Plumper Cove and we have a cottage there. The US-Canadian border is now (generally) open to vaxxed people, so we went up for the first visit of the season on Friday, 22 April (Earth Day 2022), and returned on Tuesday, 26 April. There are several special chores to process in this season that go beyond the usual maintenance and chores. The weather was the usual unstable mix for the springtime season in the Pacific Northwest (Pacific Southwest for the Canadian perspective): episodes of sunshine, clouds, and rain in sequences.
Normal chores include restoring the water system, mowing the lawn, pruning some of the shrubbery near the house, cleaning the paths by the house, and general cleaning (cobwebs and dead mice).This year, we have some added chores. One of the bathrooms developed a stench, just a plain old funky stink. It also appears to have developed a leak on the water feed. Both require further diagnosis. At the end of last season, I did some major tree-trimming that I need to finish up this year; in particular, I need to remove a large stub branch from a cedar tree that I trimmed. I also have 2-3 large cedars to remove that will allow sunshine on the cabin in the mornings. These trees are nestled in and around the switchback trail that goes up behind the cabin; one is a concern because it could take out a power line if it falls astray, and another is a concern because it is big and parts may reach to hit the cabin. I have trimmed this tree before, but not for 20 years. I want to remove two standing stumps, one from last year and the other from a decade ago (left for obscure reasons) - both are 8-10 feet tall. I want to regravel the trail up to the cabin from the boathouse. To reclaim the picnic area (rarely used becaue of shadow), I need to get the large rounds of cedar up to the woodhouse. After two years of enforced neglect (COVID), I need to do a lot of pruning to free up trails. Finally, I want to revitalize the lawn and recall it from a mossy takeover.
In summary,
- Renew my fishing (crabbing-prawning) license for 2022.
- Bathroom fixes.
- Remove large stub branch.
- Remove two tall stumps.
- Remove three cedars.
- Move cedar to firewood house.
- Restore the lawn.
- Prune, prune, prune.
I would like to remove the cedar tree, or trim it in a major way, but it is a privacy shield between us and the neighbors, so it shall remain. After dropping the stub, I spent 30 minutes or so cutting it into more manageable pieces. This is not really "splittiing", but it got the pieces small enought that I could pile them in and around the wood shed for further drying. This created a lot of sawdust and I burned through a full tank of gas for the chainsaw. You can see some of the "chunks" in the photo.
I trimmed the tree in the first place (last year, especially, but also in prior years) because it had adopted a very unhealthy growth habit that would eventually cause it to drop limbs on top of a trail and on the passers-by using that trail. The recent trimming left an odd stub that, at first, I was willing to tolerate, but became uglier over time (the opposite of "grew on me"). The tree now has a large, oval scar, but the growth habit is improved (still not great, far from it, but if I cut much more we will start to lose the privacy screening capability).
The tall stumps will be quicker to remove. One, not far from the tree in the photos, will take 30 minutes or less. I left it because I did not want a trip hazard for Graham on a trail he used often. But Graham's days on the island have become few and so I will cut it now and cut it as low to the ground as I can. The other tree is by the corner of the deck on the cabin. It will take longer to cut, mainly because it is on a severely sloping hill and steady footing is hard to find. But another 30-45 minutes. Both will end up in the wood shed, although I may try to take some lumber from the long-standing stump. It could become a kayak paddle if the wood is in good shape. Maybe.The lawn is a mess. It has been battered by two summers of neglect, one of which included the famed heat dome, and not even a trace of fertilizer. The winters have been perfect for moss (as measured by the results in Redmond), and moss has really taken over. I plan to use a water-vinegar spray to kill or stun the moss. Then I have to remove it, somehow - I hate the idea of raking it but I also do not want to take the dethatcher up for a small job. So - raking it shall be. Then some grass seed and some hope. Given the water supply at the cabin, I do not plan to water any grass.I am ever optimistic that I will catch crab and prawns. I may even try some hook fishing for finfish. Therefore, I need to renew my saltwater fishing license for BC. This can be done on-line, I just need to remember to do it. I am old-fashioned enough that I feel I should have a paper copy and not just an electronic copy; and I need to get some bait. Finaly, I shall also check for a senior-citizen discount.
Chores are calling.
Friday, April 15, 2022
Seven Pounds - 15 April 2022
Quickly lose weight! I just lost about seven pounds. It may be temporary but it sure was fast. My secret? Well, I shall tell you.
COVID seems to be winding down. I emphasize seems because the hospitalization numbers are down, I have my full vaxx and booster, and the weather is getting nicer. After two years of caution and lock-in, it feels like it should be OK to get out and circulate a little among selected (healthy) groups. So I did. We have a group, a delegation, visiting Seattle from France. Although 2020 was the 45th anniversary of the twinning of Seattle (USA) and Nantes (FR), COVID postponed the plans for an exchange of delegate groups. In early 2022, all the signs were shaping up and they culminated in a group of 40-50 visitors from Nantes arriving in Seattle. The group represented maritime, aviation, elected/municipal, and cultural interests. From this, a series of meetings and explorations were planned throughout the week to explore opportunities. During the times of roaring COVID, we had arranged cultural exchanges such as art shows and a collaborative beer, #8000Kilometers with Lantern Brewing, and some face-time allowed us to seek other common interests and issues.As a cultural and social activity, the local Seattle-Nantes Sister City Association hosted a potluck dinner that featured local and American foods. This brought people together for an evening of socializing. We were brave: we went without masks indoors. I left the event very tired and went to bed somewhat late.
It was not a pleasant night. I woke in the middle of the night with classic symptoms of the flu. A low-grade fever, general pains, nausea, dry heaves. I was sorta-kinda OK until I went into the kitchen for some water. The lingering smell of warmed pizza (a midnight snack for someone else) hit me like a bat and I went straight for the toilet to empty my stomach. I went back to bed and repeated this dry/wet pattern a couple more times. I was pretty empty, dehydrated, groggy, and listless. I belabor all this because I do not think it was COVID - no breathing problems at all - just classic influenza symptoms coming down hard. I basically napped the next day and only kept down about four ounces of water throughout the day. The second night was unpleasant but far better than the first. I slept better, even after napping much of the day, and did not need to get up.
During this time, I skipped a pub crawl in the Ballard area one evening and a mayoral reception in Seattle the next. Sacrifices were made.
I woke up the next morning feeling fine. A bit dehydrated throughout the day, but alert and feeling fine.
So with this as context, I dropped seven pounds in 48 hours. I do not recommend the method, but I must admit it is effective. I shall do my best to make the advances stick and even multiply them, but that is only a silver lining from a very dark cloud.
The photo is from the Seattle Japanese Garden in the Arboretum.
Because of Easter weekend, US Taxes are due Monday, 18 April.
Monday, April 04, 2022
Backup your data - 4 April 2022
Backups are your friend.
I was working for a large company in the 1980s that was delivering a large project to replace thousands of "dumb" terminals (think "IBM 3270", but not as smart) and dumb displays with "smart" PC-based systems connected on a large LAN. The Great PC Invasion and Distributed Computing Revolution were underway, so the company had hired a a collection of experienced PC and minicomputer programmers who were led by a management team of Mainframe Gods (as they viewed themselves). As a bunch of hot-shot PC and UN*X types, we demanded a version control system and a tool for backing up the source tree. In their wisdom, the Mainframe Gods chose not to invest in spurious tech like backups and version control, therefore each programmer had a personal responsibility to back up their source code. As you might imagine, this was only loosely honored by most of the staff. For all intents and purposes, there was no backup. There was, however, one developer who was nominally the build engineer and therefore kept all the current, official source in one place: on his PC. Let us call him Bob because that is not his name.Sunday, March 27, 2022
Nantes Park, Seattle WA - 27 March 2022
The garden project is a set of whimsical heads on mythical creatures.
My descriptions are lacking - the art additions are designed to make the park more welcoming to kids.
As a fund-raiser, the SNSCA and the Seattle Sister Cities Association have published a cookbook, The International Table, available directly from SNSCA and at bookstores throughout metropolitan Seattle. The cookbook features recipes selected to represent favorite foods of the varied sister cities of Seattle yet remain approachable by the American cook.Tuesday, March 22, 2022
Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson - 22 March 2022
Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is presently being reviewed by a committee of the U.S. Senate for a position on the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS). There are many arguments coming up. We can put aside the arguments from the people that want Yet Another White Man because they are so familiar and so expected. The noisy protestations from Cruz, Hawley, Graham, and Blackburn (I think) fall along the expected lines based on racism and hot-button issues with little inherent meaning (CRT - Critical Race Theory), and so the argument that stands significant to me is the split along originalism and "lived experience".
A repeated argument in favor of Judge Jackson is that she expands the SCOTUS to represent a broader slice of America. She adds a point of view not already on the court, not in the history of the court. Besides being the first black woman on SCOTUS, and besides being one of the few women on the SCOTUS, she is an experienced defense attorney. She was a public defender, defending those arrested for crimes. Further, she has defended some of those locked up in Guantanamo for crimes during the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. Most (perhaps even all) prior Justices on SCOTUS have had experience on the prosecuting side of cases rather than the defense side. The Judge's experience broadening perspective of the Court is viewed as a Good Thing. The Judge is expected to apply her "lived experience" as a defense lawyer to issues brought to the SCOTUS.
The originalists generally advocate a literal interpretation of the Constitution. They feel that the words of the Constitution must carry the argument. If the Constitution does not mention "privacy", then there can be no "right of privacy"; the Constitution states a "right to bear arms", so there is an impregnable right to "bear arms"; and so on. This originalist model is either lazy or intellectually bankrupt. It is lazy when one fails to take the words from 1789 and adapt them to nearly 250 years of change. The 1789 document, itself, is a replacement for the Articles of Confederation that were barely two decades old, and the 1789 document, itself, spells out procedures to amend (change) the very document. The originalist model is intellectually bankrupt because it denies the 27 amendments, it denies 250 years of change in the world, and because it binds us to a mind-reading exercise of a group of white men from 250 years ago. White men who owned property, who owned slaves, who were only familiar with 18th Century technology, and white men who, themselves, were arguing that change is a necessary part of the human existence. The famed original authors did not ever argue for stasis or stagnancy or they would never have started out on the revolutionary path that they followed. The Jeffersons and Franklins of the 18th Century argue in favor of change and in favor of adapting to lived experience.
The reactionaries of today, generally the GOP Republicans, and the Federalist Society are arguing that our judicial system be run on the basis and mores of the 18th Century, and such an argument is bogus.Let us proceed with all due haste to confirm Judge Jackson to the Supreme Court.
Friday, March 18, 2022
Masking protocols - 18 March 2022
Across Washington, the COVID-defense masks are no longer required in most areas. We spent months (years?) dealing with mask mandates, finally learning to remember to wear them and now - poof! - gone. We spent uncounted dollars experimenting with various designs and quality, finally settling on some cone-like N95 masks. Early on, the masks were nearly a dollar each for disposables and the price has dropped dramtically (less than $0.25 each). We have learned how to air them out for reuse. All that is now by the wayside. Or is it?
While the state no longer requires masks, a new Omicron variant is growing in the world. China seems to be suffering and the maps show that Japan is stressed. There are areas of the map showing some success over the virus, but I believe that there are agencies of note that are faking the numbers. Florida reports numbers similar to or better than Washington (state), and that is simply not believable. But I was talking about masks.I have decided that I will continue to wear a mask routinely in public areas. With people I know, I can make an informed choice to wear or not wear a mask, but for the public areas where I have little or no knowledge (generally indoors, but specifically stores), I will continue to wear a mask. This raises the question - what if someone accosts me about my mask?
I initially thought of a couple of responses. Silence has merit; just ignore the bozo. Unfortunately, some of the bozos will not be ignored, they will continue to press their case in the face of silence, and they will not be disuaded. I thought about responding, "my body, my choice", but that gives a mistaken impression of support for those who refused to wear masks when they were mandated. And there is the problem that many of the bozos will not understand. I thought about saying "condition of my parole" as a humorous response, but many bozos are humor-impaired.
After further consideration, I have decided that I will take surreptitious looks to the left and the right, then quietly say "facial recognition" in a knowing tone of voice. I feel this is sufficiently mocking of the Qanon folks and it is positive. Those outside the bozo and Qanon communities will understand the joke. I hope.
Thursday, March 10, 2022
Fourteen days and counting - 10 March 2022
The Russian 2022 Invasion of Ukraine continues and we have reached the two-week point. I just watched a video of a YouTuber that I generally follow. He left Ukraine shortly after the 2022 Invasion started and made his way to Budapest, Hungary. His name is Johnny and his recent video is here. It makes me think a bit more about Putin's motives, options, intentions, and the invasion.
The people who expect this Invasion to be over soon are severely optimistic. The good-hearted people of Hungary and Poland are responding with great generosity. They are accepting a large influx of displaced peoples and making arrangements for the people to have a place to stay and food to eat. Other countries are constructing special immigration conditions and visas to allow the displaced people to move out across Europe. This is great now, but how long can it last? How long can someone in Budapest have a small family living in a spare bedroom? How long can the collective countries provide a river of food and supplies for this guests? Even the good-hearted have their limits.
And what about the displaced peoples themselves? They do not want hand-outs. They do not want a life of living in the corners of someone else's life. They want to live and work in a society. They want to build a better society. All the goodwill and handouts in the world will not give them purpose. In the West, we need to understand this situation. We need to understand Putin's intentions and what will make him stop.
As I mentioned a couple days ago, he may leave this mortal coil. That would bring a quick end, but then we need to think about Putin's successor. Will that person be better? Or worse? Lenin was a monster, but Stalin was worse. Gorbachev and Yeltsin showed some degree of improvement, but then Putin came along. This is a great, looming question.
It seems reasonable to predict that Putin will continue to prosecute his war. It may not take the few days that he expected but the sunk cost and the consequences of failure will keep Putin and the entire Russian military moving forward. If the military machine stalls, we could have a stalemate, a front that lives in-place. That is the lesson of Crimea. Putin could be happy with that outcome for another decade. He would declare the de-Nazification suffessful and complete, and everyting would settle down along some line of battle. The (generally) eastern portions of Ukraine would gradually become fully integrated into Russia; the (generally) western portions of Ukraine would assemble some sense of normalcy and resume a shadowed existence. The shadow hanging over them would be the next Putin invasion, somewhere around 2027-2030 to grab the next bit of Ukraine. This is something like the Korea model, now approaching 70 years old. If some sort of guerilla war continues, it would be more like the Viet Nam model.
It seems highly unlikely that the Russian army would do any meaningful sort of retreat. Such would be predicated on the end of Putin, either via the mortal coil departure, via some internal struggle or replacement by parties in Moscow, or a combination of the two. Putin can stop the Russian Army but he cannot retreat.
All of the above could take years to resolve, during which the fighting will continue with some degree of intensity. As the weather gets better in the summer and fall, the fighting will probably get more intense, while the winter cold and spring rains will probably reduce the level of fighting, although not stopping it.
During those years, what will the western nations do? And what will China do? It seems that China will exploit the situation, leverage its position as the only large trading partner remaining wiht Russia. The US can do little about this because of the massive Chinese Manufacturing System. If China stops or merely slows the manufacture of electronics, clothing, appliances, and component parts necessary for comfort in the western countries, there will be sudden changes in support. The price of gasoline (petrol) has gone up in the last two weeks and people (Fox News) are already questioning why we are against Russia in Ukraine. (For the record, Tucker Carlson of FOX News on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Laura Ingraham is not far from Carlson.) So China will continue to support Russia and keep something resembling an economy alive in Russia. This will be done in some manner beneficial to China, but it shall be done.
And what will happen to support for Ukraine in the US when the newest Apple iPhone is delayed? When the clothing stores start to run out of all that stuff? Will Americans continue to accept explanations that blame the "supply chain" or will they demand that their electronic addiction be satisfied? Will they pay more for jeans made in the US or will they demand cheap clothing from China?The good news is that the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be moving to the chronic stage and will kill fewer people. The COVID-19 story of the last two years is (sort of) going away. The bad news is that Putin invaded Ukraine and it will take years to recover.
Tuesday, March 08, 2022
Spring is springing - 8 March 2022
The photo has nothing to do with the yardwork or the rust work, but it presents a sense of the spring-like weather we have had in the last few days.
Twelve days and counting... for many more days - 8 March 2022
Putin directed the Russian forces to invade the non-Crimea part of Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, about twelve days ago. The larger war started in about February 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and started an on-going conflict in Donbas. Many American citizens, American journalists, and people around the world are cheering the military resistance of the Ukrainian forces and take some sort of a positive view of the imminent results.
I regret to say that I believe this is going to be a long war. Years long, if not perpetual (for a poetic definition of "perpetuity"). I will lay out my thinking here.
Afghanistan. The Soviet-Afghan war ran a decade, from about 24 Dec 1979 to 15 Feb 1989 (says Wikipedia). This was a bloody war, an expensive war, and a losing war, but they pursued it doggedly. (I am sad to add that the American political leaders learned nothing from this and proceeded to repeat the foolishness from about 2001-2021, but that is another screed.) The Soviets learned nothing from their Afghan invasion and are applying that same stupidity to their present war. This is a repeating theme. Another way of saying this is to observe that blood and treasure mean little to the Russian elite in their attempts to gain land and prestige; I do not pretend to understand what they see as "prestige" but it is clear that it is important to that leadership.
Chechnya. The Russians fought a scortched-earth policy to pursue the Chechen wars and all they got was a phyrric victory or two. As in Afghanistan, the (now) Russians poured blood and treasure into the wars, claimed land and prestige, and learned nothing.
Crimea. The Russians annexed Crimea in about March 2014 at minor cost. They continued some form of war in Donbas at minor cost. They learned something from this case - that military force can be applied without major consequences.
Trump. The Russians learned that a stooge like Trump can give them everything they want without overt cost. It has taken a year, but Putin has finally realized that the stooge is out of office, so he has returned to traditional methods - military force.
Ukraine. Although the early days of the Russian invastion of Ukraine in 2022 are going badly for Russia, the willingness of Putin to pour blood and treasure into the invasion in order to achieve his political goal of restoring Ukraine to the Russian Empire will make it impossible for him to give up or turn back. The blood and treasure are not important to him, but the land and prestive are - as we have seen before.
This leads to consideration of the possible outcomes. In no particular order, I shall tread heavily where learned people fear to tread.
Low-level war for an extended period. I suspect this is the most likely outcome. The Ukraine government and people will resist with the covert and overt support of other countries throughout the world, but featuring support from the US, EU/NATO, and allied countries. As in Viet Nam and the East, as in the colonial struggles across Africa, and as in South America, one bloc of the world will stimulate military action and the other bloc of the world will support efforts to resist military action. Nominally, the Ukrainian resistance will be a democratic government against the autocracy of Putin, but the West has shown that this is not required. Expected duration is on the order of a decade and the expected result is unclear (hard to predict). In any outcome, it will not be pretty for Ukraine. One big unknown is the duration of the firm resistance (sanctions) by other governments. If Biden or Macron are replaced by weaker individuals, the alliances could well slip into posturing and this would allow Putin to survive and even prosper. The bumbling of Boris Johnson and the UK government is a case study, especially as they are distracted by the aftermath of Brexit. If Biden is replaced in 2024 by a dimwit from the Republican ranks, resistance to Putin will quickly go the way of BJ et al.
Putin's exit. If things get bad enough in Ukraine and in Russia, the autocrats and bureaucracy in Russia could find a convenient replacement for Vladimir Putin. This is very unpredictable. Putin is happy to crack down on the population to quell opposition and independent journalism, so it is unlikely that the populus will rise up against Putin. That means the oligarchs and autocrats must manage and direct the bureaucracy (and the military) to move Putin out of the picture, either suddenly (perhaps through violent means) or gradually (less violent). Putin will not go willingly, and he has spent the better part of the last two decades pruning the bureaucracy to eliminate dissent and nurturing the oligarchs to cement their loyalty. The pressure of sanctions must hit hard against the wealthy in Russia, hard enough to make their lives miserable, before they will even consider action. Eventually, one of them will be brave enough to restack the apples on the cart so that Putin is rolled into the bin.
Putin's trauma. Senator Lindsay Graham has called for the assassination of Putin (I find it strange and seriously out-of-character that Senator Ted Cruz opposes this, but the idea is so blindly stupid that even Cruz sees it as a bridge too far; so far, we have no word from the nutcakes like Greene and Boebert, so maybe the spoke to Cruz before blathering in public). To be complete, there is a remote chance that Putin will suffer a sudden health set-back, either through natural forces or as induced by an otherwise unpredictable vector. I call this The Mule Factor after the character in the Asimov Foundation novels. The character of The Mule is an unpredictable factor that intrudes on the orderly predictions of Hari Seldon and his mathematics, destablizing the Foundation and placing the Galatic order at risk. Putin, himself, is somewhat of a Mule, and an anti-Putin would also be a Mule. While we can make predictions about large groups of people, the actions and decision of a single individual are very difficult to anticipate. Therefore, the singular event of trauma that removes Putin from consideration cannot be predicted with any confidence at all.
The rise of Putin has been a singular event and that event or process can end in many ways. There is a much longer screed that could be written about this, but Yeltsin (a Mule) gave way to Putin (a Mule), creating much unpredictability and confusion. In a similar way, the incompenance and stupidity of Trump (a Mule) was easily manipulated by Putin, creating much unpredictability and confusion. In light of this compounded confusion of unpredictable players and forces, the rest of the world has fallen back into traditional patterns that are derived from the Cold War. We are looking at a restoration of a Communist bloc and a Western bloc with new names and revised players. There is also the possibility of a Chinese bloc rising, but the world would align along two or three great divisions. We may learn yet more from the foresight of Orwell.I would like to hope that Putin slips away in his sleep in the next few days, but then we have to think about his replacement and it is not at all clear who that would be or what policies they might pursue. The future is very hard to predict, so let us think of cats.
Sunday, March 06, 2022
The Official First Mowing of 2022 - 6 March 2022
Yesterday was the last day for which sunset is before 6pm until late October. The Vernal Equinox arrives in two weeks. After much snow and rain, the weather has started to warm a bit into the upper 40s and touching 50F. Therefore, the grass has decided to grow again and it is necessary to start to mow again. With a break in the rains and a few sunny days, I charged up the batteries overnight to be ready for today. I pulled out the new mower, an EGO battery-powered self-propelled mulching mower; there is probably an acronym for that, but EGO BPSPMM does not roll off the tongue and I shall not use it. I was confident that I was prepared and ready to mow. How hard can this be?
I put on my safety shoes, a pair of old hiking boots now retired. I pulled the mower handle to full length and locked it in place. I rotated the handle to the middle position to be comfortable for my height. I slotted in the battery with a solid push, punched the ON/OFF button, pulled the safety bail, and pushed the go-forward palm-buttons. The mower lit up and moved forward. Unfortunately, the mower was strangely quiet and there did not seem to be any mowing action taking place. The grass was pushed over but did not appear trimmed behind me.
I probably violated a dozen safety warnings when I put the mower up on a pair of sawhorses so that I could see what was going on underneath. The oddly quiet bit that I had noticed earlier was confirmed by inspection: the blades were not rotating. I started with some simple diagnostics: battery fully seated (the mower propelled itself but maybe another contact was not supplying power for the blades), reseat the battery, switches fully depressed, headlights work, mower handle fully extended and locked in place. No joy, so I came into the house to check some YouTube videos.
The first two videos both concluded that a safety switch in the handle extension/lock device was the problem and the solution was to bypass the switch. I was reluctant to bypass a safety device, so I watched a third video. This guy started going down the same path, dismantling various housings to inspect the wiring and switches beneath each. When he got to the main housing where my hands go (as the operator), he took apart and demonstrated how the main power switch works. This was the aha! moment. I had taken the ON/OFF switch as the usual push-on-push-off momentary toggle switch. Not so! There is a mechanical interlock involved with the starting bail, so one pushes the ON/OFF switch and holds it while pulling on the starting bail. I had released the ON/OFF switch, so the mechanical interlock did not engage when I pulled back the bail.
User error.
Once I held the ON/OFF switch will engaging the bail, everything worked fine. I mowed the three tranches of the lawn with no problems. I have not yet turned the outside water back on, so the hose cleaning will have to wait until the next mowing party. After mowing the front yard, the battery has only descended by one bar (from 5-full to 4-partial).
Two notes on the grass. The grass seed that I applied a month ago did little. I speculate that it has been too cold to sprout, therefore it went to feed the birds. Furthermore, any seed that may have remained was probably washed away by the rains. The other note is that the moss is doing well. Major swathes of the bright green lawn are moss rather than grass, so I have to get out the dethatcher for a workout. Given that I am also struggling with moss on the asphalt of the driveway and the cement of the walkways, this is no surprise. This has been a really good year for moss.Wednesday, March 02, 2022
Doctor and Scouter Doug Lambrecht - 2 March 2022
Yesterday was the two-year anniversary of the death of Dr. Doug Lambrecht. I knew Doug through BSA Scouting as well as his sons and family. COVID reached the shores of the United States in 2020 through a nursing home in Kirkland.
First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns
Doug was recovering from medical treatment in the Kirkland nursing home when he was stricken. He succumbed on 1 March 2020.
Obituary - James Douglas Lambrecht, MD